[BostonCard]

I'm impressed that Ukraine has hung on in Bakhmut for so long, but I am not sure whose "math" to trust, and I don't have a good sense as to whether Ukraine still is benefitting from using Bakhmut as a spot for a defensive stand.  For example, the DefMon twitter account today expressed a hope that Ukraine's public statements about reinforcing the city are psyops meant to facilitate a withdrawal.  I don't have any particularly good information that others lack, but I am concerned that Ukraine may be losing soldiers without sufficient reward and that continuing this battle may allow Russia to encircle some of Ukraine's remaining troops.  Is there reason to think that Bakhmut is positioned like Popasna, such that a withdrawal by Ukraine would be a key event that would allow Russia to make significant territorial gains?  (I would hope that Ukraine has had time by now to prepare a strong second line of defense, as well as defense in depth.)

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1630994947783491605

So far, Ukrainians have not defended to futility, so I don't expect them to do so this time.  The strategic benefit to Bakhmut evaporated once the Ukranians drove the Russians back from Izyum, Kupyansk and Lyman.  Once upon a time, Russia had ambitions to encircle Ukrainian forces in a cauldron centered on Siversk (see this map):



This would have been in the service of capturing Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, which would have enabled Russia to control the rest of the Donetsk Oblast and therefore the entirety of the Donbas.  But of course, encircling the forces became impossible once Ukraine recaptured the territory north of the salient.

BC

[BostonCard]

I'm impressed that Ukraine has hung on in Bakhmut for so long, but I am not sure whose "math" to trust, and I don't have a good sense as to whether Ukraine still is benefitting from using Bakhmut as a spot for a defensive stand.  For example, the DefMon twitter account today expressed a hope that Ukraine's public statements about reinforcing the city are psyops meant to facilitate a withdrawal.  I don't have any particularly good information that others lack, but I am concerned that Ukraine may be losing soldiers without sufficient reward and that continuing this battle may allow Russia to encircle some of Ukraine's remaining troops.  Is there reason to think that Bakhmut is positioned like Popasna, such that a withdrawal by Ukraine would be a key event that would allow Russia to make significant territorial gains?  (I would hope that Ukraine has had time by now to prepare a strong second line of defense, as well as defense in depth.)

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1630994947783491605

So far, Ukrainians have not defended to futility, so I don't expect them to do so this time.  The strategic benefit to Bakhmut evaporated once the Ukranians drove the Russians back from Izyum, Kupyansk and Lyman.  Once upon a time, Russia had ambitions to encircle Ukrainian forces in a cauldron centered on Siversk (see this map):



This would have been in the service of capturing Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, which would have enabled Russia to control the rest of the Donetsk Oblast and therefore the entirety of the Donbas.  But of course, encircling the forces became impossible once Ukraine recaptured the territory north of the salient.

BC