[81alum]

Let us remember that 1) the last time we won a natty, we defeated South Carolina in the semifinals, and 2) we traditionally do better in the 1st game of a weekend than the 2nd.  When we won the natty, you could say we over performed in the 1st game against South Carolina and under performed against a team we had defeated decisively two times in the second game.

So if the object is to win a natty, it is better that it be this way than the reverse.

If the object is just to get as far as we can, then of course it would have been better to have an easier foe in the semis.

But all of that is highly theoretical.  Defeating Texas and Iowa will be hard.  I almost think we would have an easier time against South Carolina than against Iowa.  Playing Iowa after a tough game against Texas, as the second game in a weekend, for the first time in years, will undermine the scouting report defense.  So the elite 8 game presents itself as a very, very hard game.

And of course we have three we need to win first.  And given how things went in the Pac 12 tournament, we can't count on that.  Both the games against Old Miss/Gonzaga and Texas will be highly challenging. 

That said, I will take 538's odds.  After this season, having a 50/50 chance of making to the final four sounds pretty good.

[81alum]

Let us remember that 1) the last time we won a natty, we defeated South Carolina in the semifinals, and 2) we traditionally do better in the 1st game of a weekend than the 2nd.  When we won the natty, you could say we over performed in the 1st game against South Carolina and under performed against a team we had defeated decisively two times in the second game.

So if the object is to win a natty, it is better that it be this way than the reverse.

If the object is just to get as far as we can, then of course it would have been better to have an easier foe in the semis.

But all of that is highly theoretical.  Defeating Texas and Iowa will be hard.  I almost think we would have an easier time against South Carolina than against Iowa.  Playing Iowa after a tough game against Texas, as the second game in a weekend, for the first time in years, will undermine the scouting report defense.  So the elite 8 game presents itself as a very, very hard game.

And of course we have three we need to win first.  And given how things went in the Pac 12 tournament, we can't count on that.  Both the games against Old Miss/Gonzaga and Texas will be highly challenging. 

That said, I will take 538's odds.  After this season, having a 50/50 chance of making to the final four sounds pretty good.