[Goose]

I have seen multiple reports in last 24 hours that Russian forces are facing severe shortages of ammunition of many types.

The fact Russia has been using lots less artillery is undisputed. There are also anecdotal reports of troops advancing without small arms. I think it is prudent to assume that Russia is withholding ammunition as opposed to they don't have it. It is entirely possible they have been scraping the bottom of the barrel and are becoming concerned about a Ukrainian offensive(s). The Russian military is at least professional enough to know you don't want to be without ammunition and over-extended. The Ukrainians have pointed out that Russia is now moving ammunition from lots farther east than before. It may impose "supply chain" restrictions on their usage and require much longer resupply intervals.

For better or worse, Ukraine has been openly touting their upcoming "spring offensive". It is now probably imperative that they have one, at least for their own political credibility. Russia may be settling down to "play defense" for a while, willingly or by necessity. Kursk comes to mind in that regard. I expect we shall see, but I hope Ukraine operates on their timetable, not Russia's or NATO's. They have been training lots of troops both inside and outside of Ukraine. This has undoubtedly put heavy stress on the units who have been doing the fighting to make this possible. It may be they get only one chance at this, as a notable failure will fuel opinion in "the West" that Ukraine is doomed. Timing is important. If Russia is "temporarily" short of ammunition, Ukraine undoubtedly wants to take advantage. OTOH, they don't want to go off at "half-cocked". Hopefully Ukraine knows the actual situation.

[Goose]

I have seen multiple reports in last 24 hours that Russian forces are facing severe shortages of ammunition of many types.

The fact Russia has been using lots less artillery is undisputed. There are also anecdotal reports of troops advancing without small arms. I think it is prudent to assume that Russia is withholding ammunition as opposed to they don't have it. It is entirely possible they have been scraping the bottom of the barrel and are becoming concerned about a Ukrainian offensive(s). The Russian military is at least professional enough to know you don't want to be without ammunition and over-extended. The Ukrainians have pointed out that Russia is now moving ammunition from lots farther east than before. It may impose "supply chain" restrictions on their usage and require much longer resupply intervals.

For better or worse, Ukraine has been openly touting their upcoming "spring offensive". It is now probably imperative that they have one, at least for their own political credibility. Russia may be settling down to "play defense" for a while, willingly or by necessity. Kursk comes to mind in that regard. I expect we shall see, but I hope Ukraine operates on their timetable, not Russia's or NATO's. They have been training lots of troops both inside and outside of Ukraine. This has undoubtedly put heavy stress on the units who have been doing the fighting to make this possible. It may be they get only one chance at this, as a notable failure will fuel opinion in "the West" that Ukraine is doomed. Timing is important. If Russia is "temporarily" short of ammunition, Ukraine undoubtedly wants to take advantage. OTOH, they don't want to go off at "half-cocked". Hopefully Ukraine knows the actual situation.