[Goose]

At this point I am not sure whether Russia could mount any significant offensive operations against Finland or anyone else.  I am quite sure they are not where they expected to be at this time.  I think Putin believed his forces would seize the capital of Ukraine and the country would collapse and he would then be on the borders of Poland, the Baltic States, and Finland and he would be there without expending much in the way of manpower, and military equipment.  The Ukraine has ground up a significant amount of his more or less ready men and equipment.

I think this is all correct.

I simply don't think he has enough other forces capable of launching an attack on Finland or anywhere else with any chance of winning.  By this I mean non-nuclear forces.

It probably isn't wise to extrapolate too far here. If NATO wasn't going to get involved, Russia would have no trouble with the Baltic states or Finland. The are simply too small. Ukraine is a big country. They can (and did) lose lots of territory and survive. Ukraine also had a rather large air force and an IADS they inherited from the Soviet Union. Finland and the Baltics have none of the above. The Russian Air Force would have a field day. Fortunately, the Baltics are inside NATO and Finland has NATO "status", so they wouldn't be fighting alone. If they were, Russia would do just fine.

Poland and the Baltic States might have enough forces to put some serious pressure on St. Petersburg.

Doubt it, for lots of  reasons. The Baltic states are not configured for offense. They rely on what is effectively militia for lots of their (very small) army. Their offensive potential is nugatory. Poland has access problems. The Baltics are in the way. The roads suck (at best). They have Kaliningrad and its missiles to deal with. In addition, the air defenses around Leningrad are some of the best in the country. That is why Russia could remove most of the S-300s to use against Ukraine. They have so many S-400s in the area their radars interfere with each other. They are prepared for USAFE, not the Polish Air force. It is well to remember that the state of Poland as it exists today has never fought a war. They are beefing up their capability, but totally lack experience. Early on, they are going to make lots of mistakes. It is inevitable. It also is wise to take into account that Russian airmen defending Russia are going to be a whole different thing than Russian airmen attacking Ukraine. Fortunately, this is hypothetical :-).

The challenge as I see it is for the West to keep Ukraine in the game.  Like it or not, the Ukraine is being used to grind up a significant amount of Russia's most ready units and tons of their equipment.  They can't make tanks as fast as they are losing them and they can't replace experienced infantry anywhere near as fast as they are losing them.

How long can Putin remain in power if the stalemate grinds on?  How long can Ukraine hold on without more significant outside help?  At this point can the West afford to let Ukraine lose?  Poland's dislike of Russia is very strong.  If Ukraine seemed on the verge of losing, seeing Poland getting involved would not surprise me.  I am not sure any country hates Russia more than Poland.

IMO all good points/questions. The West simply can't let Ukraine lose at this point. I don't see Poland getting directly involved in the form of a voluntary choice. I can certainly see it happen in response to a "provocation", and that provocation may not be investigated too closely if Ukraine is losing. The US has undoubtedly made it clear to all involved that everybody must stay "on side", but if things get bad enough that may not matter. This is the kind of thing that needed to be thought through and planned for from the beginning. Unfortunately, I am unsure it was, and that is how big mistakes happen. Lets hope Ukraine starts to push Russia back and threatens Crimea. At that point, I think Putin is history and maybe the Russian state will realize this war was a mistake.
EDIT:
Possibly I am on to something here?
https://www.yahoo.com/news/polish-ambass...21342.html

[Goose]

At this point I am not sure whether Russia could mount any significant offensive operations against Finland or anyone else.  I am quite sure they are not where they expected to be at this time.  I think Putin believed his forces would seize the capital of Ukraine and the country would collapse and he would then be on the borders of Poland, the Baltic States, and Finland and he would be there without expending much in the way of manpower, and military equipment.  The Ukraine has ground up a significant amount of his more or less ready men and equipment.

I think this is all correct.

I simply don't think he has enough other forces capable of launching an attack on Finland or anywhere else with any chance of winning.  By this I mean non-nuclear forces.

It probably isn't wise to extrapolate too far here. If NATO wasn't going to get involved, Russia would have no trouble with the Baltic states or Finland. The are simply too small. Ukraine is a big country. They can (and did) lose lots of territory and survive. Ukraine also had a rather large air force and an IADS they inherited from the Soviet Union. Finland and the Baltics have none of the above. The Russian Air Force would have a field day. Fortunately, the Baltics are inside NATO and Finland has NATO "status", so they wouldn't be fighting alone. If they were, Russia would do just fine.

Poland and the Baltic States might have enough forces to put some serious pressure on St. Petersburg.

Doubt it, for lots of  reasons. The Baltic states are not configured for offense. They rely on what is effectively militia for lots of their (very small) army. Their offensive potential is nugatory. Poland has access problems. The Baltics are in the way. The roads suck (at best). They have Kaliningrad and its missiles to deal with. In addition, the air defenses around Leningrad are some of the best in the country. That is why Russia could remove most of the S-300s to use against Ukraine. They have so many S-400s in the area their radars interfere with each other. They are prepared for USAFE, not the Polish Air force. It is well to remember that the state of Poland as it exists today has never fought a war. They are beefing up their capability, but totally lack experience. Early on, they are going to make lots of mistakes. It is inevitable. It also is wise to take into account that Russian airmen defending Russia are going to be a whole different thing than Russian airmen attacking Ukraine. Fortunately, this is hypothetical :-).

The challenge as I see it is for the West to keep Ukraine in the game.  Like it or not, the Ukraine is being used to grind up a significant amount of Russia's most ready units and tons of their equipment.  They can't make tanks as fast as they are losing them and they can't replace experienced infantry anywhere near as fast as they are losing them.

How long can Putin remain in power if the stalemate grinds on?  How long can Ukraine hold on without more significant outside help?  At this point can the West afford to let Ukraine lose?  Poland's dislike of Russia is very strong.  If Ukraine seemed on the verge of losing, seeing Poland getting involved would not surprise me.  I am not sure any country hates Russia more than Poland.

IMO all good points/questions. The West simply can't let Ukraine lose at this point. I don't see Poland getting directly involved in the form of a voluntary choice. I can certainly see it happen in response to a "provocation", and that provocation may not be investigated too closely if Ukraine is losing. The US has undoubtedly made it clear to all involved that everybody must stay "on side", but if things get bad enough that may not matter. This is the kind of thing that needed to be thought through and planned for from the beginning. Unfortunately, I am unsure it was, and that is how big mistakes happen. Lets hope Ukraine starts to push Russia back and threatens Crimea. At that point, I think Putin is history and maybe the Russian state will realize this war was a mistake.
EDIT:
Possibly I am on to something here?
https://www.yahoo.com/news/polish-ambass...21342.html