[Goose]

The West simply can't let Ukraine lose at this point. I don't see Poland getting directly involved in the form of a voluntary choice. I can certainly see it happen in response to a "provocation", and that provocation may not be investigated too closely if Ukraine is losing. The US has undoubtedly made it clear to all involved that everybody must stay "on side", but if things get bad enough that may not matter. This is the kind of thing that needed to be thought through and planned for from the beginning. Unfortunately, I am unsure it was, and that is how big mistakes happen. Lets hope Ukraine starts to push Russia back and threatens Crimea. At that point, I think Putin is history and maybe the Russian state will realize this war was a mistake.

I wonder about that. I think it's extraordinarily difficult to plan for a war, and plans work until you get punched in the face as Mr. Tyson says. Ukraine seems as if they were much more prepared than Russia, who never seemed to be prepared at all.

Actually, I was referring to the US/West/NATO response. There are lots of "branches" in that response depending on what actually happens. The last thing anybody should want to happen is that the war takes a path we haven't considered and gets "out of control", especially if that happens because somebody like Poland decides to "do something". I haven't be reassured that the US has a "plan" even before they get punched. The ATACMS situation, the main battle tank situation, and the fighter situation makes one wonder. Consider, why is it that we keep saying no tanks, no tanks, and then after a year we say "OK, tanks"? What changed?

Ukraine seems to be winning in a walk,

At best, Ukraine is not losing. Russia is still deep into Ukrainian territory. Right now, Russia clearly has the initiative. They are still attacking Ukrainian infrastructure and causing casualties. I think we all are looking at it from the point of view that it could be much worse than it is. That is undoubtedly true. That doesn't mean it is good. We also think that things are going to turn around. That's fine, and when they do we can celebrate. Now is not yet that time.

they have a significant amount of assistance from the west, they appear to be outplanning the Russians at every turn and the Russians are absolutely getting their hats handed to them as they lose personnel, territory and ordnance.

Ukrainian planning at the start of the war was spotty at best (partially due to treason). The units that were supposed to defend in Kherson Oblast were off on exercises far down the river on the right bank. They might as well have been in Boston. The guards at the Kiev airport attempted to keep the National Guard troops out. They almost started shooting at each other. It was a very near thing they were allowed in before the Russians arrived. And Russia is still in Ukraine and they are still attacking. When that starts turning around, then one can say Ukraine's strategy was a success, at least to that point. Until then, it is TBD.

And when May comes, and Ukrainian troops return from NATO countries freshly trained on powerful armaments, I think they're going to beat the tar out of the Russians, no matter how many Chinese missiles, bombs and other arms are used by Russia.

I hope they do. They might, there is reason to believe they can. However, a well-planned effort by the US has to include a response for "What if they don't". The thing that gives me pause is that the total number of trained Ukrainians, even after all that is going on at present, is well less than two divisions (actually less than one depending on what you count as "trained"). Ukraine is a big country. Two divisions isn't enough to actually "drive" Russia out. Russia will have to either panic and run away (quite possible) or change governments and negotiate a withdrawal (also quite possible). If neither of those things happen, Ukraine is weaker than the Wehrmacht and without a Luftwaffe. They can still win, but it will require another, probably much larger, training effort. It may also require an Air Force. As was said about Iraq, "How does this end?".
I hope Ukraine makes deep penetrations in the south and makes it look like they will invade Crimea. That has a good chance to produce mass panic and lots of prisoners. The less trained National Guard troops can round them up without much of a fight. That is the "easy way" for it to end. If the Russians don't panic and hold on, it will get very messy. How much attrition can Ukraine's striking force absorb before it becomes ineffective?

[Goose]

The West simply can't let Ukraine lose at this point. I don't see Poland getting directly involved in the form of a voluntary choice. I can certainly see it happen in response to a "provocation", and that provocation may not be investigated too closely if Ukraine is losing. The US has undoubtedly made it clear to all involved that everybody must stay "on side", but if things get bad enough that may not matter. This is the kind of thing that needed to be thought through and planned for from the beginning. Unfortunately, I am unsure it was, and that is how big mistakes happen. Lets hope Ukraine starts to push Russia back and threatens Crimea. At that point, I think Putin is history and maybe the Russian state will realize this war was a mistake.

I wonder about that. I think it's extraordinarily difficult to plan for a war, and plans work until you get punched in the face as Mr. Tyson says. Ukraine seems as if they were much more prepared than Russia, who never seemed to be prepared at all.

Actually, I was referring to the US/West/NATO response. There are lots of "branches" in that response depending on what actually happens. The last thing anybody should want to happen is that the war takes a path we haven't considered and gets "out of control", especially if that happens because somebody like Poland decides to "do something". I haven't be reassured that the US has a "plan" even before they get punched. The ATACMS situation, the main battle tank situation, and the fighter situation makes one wonder. Consider, why is it that we keep saying no tanks, no tanks, and then after a year we say "OK, tanks"? What changed?

Ukraine seems to be winning in a walk,

At best, Ukraine is not losing. Russia is still deep into Ukrainian territory. Right now, Russia clearly has the initiative. They are still attacking Ukrainian infrastructure and causing casualties. I think we all are looking at it from the point of view that it could be much worse than it is. That is undoubtedly true. That doesn't mean it is good. We also think that things are going to turn around. That's fine, and when they do we can celebrate. Now is not yet that time.

they have a significant amount of assistance from the west, they appear to be outplanning the Russians at every turn and the Russians are absolutely getting their hats handed to them as they lose personnel, territory and ordnance.

Ukrainian planning at the start of the war was spotty at best (partially due to treason). The units that were supposed to defend in Kherson Oblast were off on exercises far down the river on the right bank. They might as well have been in Boston. The guards at the Kiev airport attempted to keep the National Guard troops out. They almost started shooting at each other. It was a very near thing they were allowed in before the Russians arrived. And Russia is still in Ukraine and they are still attacking. When that starts turning around, then one can say Ukraine's strategy was a success, at least to that point. Until then, it is TBD.

And when May comes, and Ukrainian troops return from NATO countries freshly trained on powerful armaments, I think they're going to beat the tar out of the Russians, no matter how many Chinese missiles, bombs and other arms are used by Russia.

I hope they do. They might, there is reason to believe they can. However, a well-planned effort by the US has to include a response for "What if they don't". The thing that gives me pause is that the total number of trained Ukrainians, even after all that is going on at present, is well less than two divisions (actually less than one depending on what you count as "trained"). Ukraine is a big country. Two divisions isn't enough to actually "drive" Russia out. Russia will have to either panic and run away (quite possible) or change governments and negotiate a withdrawal (also quite possible). If neither of those things happen, Ukraine is weaker than the Wehrmacht and without a Luftwaffe. They can still win, but it will require another, probably much larger, training effort. It may also require an Air Force. As was said about Iraq, "How does this end?".
I hope Ukraine makes deep penetrations in the south and makes it look like they will invade Crimea. That has a good chance to produce mass panic and lots of prisoners. The less trained National Guard troops can round them up without much of a fight. That is the "easy way" for it to end. If the Russians don't panic and hold on, it will get very messy. How much attrition can Ukraine's striking force absorb before it becomes ineffective?