[Goose]

I guess that the Russians have the initiative in the sense that they are on the offensive, but it really looks like that offensive is running on fumes.  It’s been a couple weeks since it looked like Bakhmut’s fall was imminent, and while it still could happen any day, I’m starting to see some indications that Russia might actually fail.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro...ch-18-2023

ISW tends to have blue and yellow colored glasses, so I take it with a grain of salt, but it is still notable that despite having Bakhmut surrounded by three sides, they’ve made very little progress.  Is it possible that they won’t be able to close the deal?  And even if they do, will they have anything left in the tank?

BC

IMO they won't have anything left in the tank, at least for a while. The mud season is well underway and may actually end in two or three weeks. Russia has always advanced/attacked in fits and starts during this war. They need time, sometimes a month or more, to regenerate their forces. Ukraine may have a great opportunity upcoming where Russia is over-extended, ill supplied, and just wants to "chill". Unfortunately, the trained tank brigade/combined arms formations are not going to be ready in two or three weeks. So, what does Ukraine have "up it's sleeve", if anything?
It also may be true that Russia just doesn't have the wherewithal to "recharge" in three weeks/a month. There may be a major lull in the fighting as neither side is ready for more. The onus is probably on Ukraine to start driving Russia back. Timing is important. Too soon and Ukraine might not be ready "enough" to prevail. Wait too long and Russia may preempt them. That may be OK if Ukraine is ready to take advantage and hit behind a Russian attack. By May we should know. If Ukraine doesn't move before the end of May, IMO something is really wrong and they are probably toast. Ukraine has sacrificed a lot to buy time for an offense. That offense needs to manifest itself.

[Goose]

I guess that the Russians have the initiative in the sense that they are on the offensive, but it really looks like that offensive is running on fumes.  It’s been a couple weeks since it looked like Bakhmut’s fall was imminent, and while it still could happen any day, I’m starting to see some indications that Russia might actually fail.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro...ch-18-2023

ISW tends to have blue and yellow colored glasses, so I take it with a grain of salt, but it is still notable that despite having Bakhmut surrounded by three sides, they’ve made very little progress.  Is it possible that they won’t be able to close the deal?  And even if they do, will they have anything left in the tank?

BC

IMO they won't have anything left in the tank, at least for a while. The mud season is well underway and may actually end in two or three weeks. Russia has always advanced/attacked in fits and starts during this war. They need time, sometimes a month or more, to regenerate their forces. Ukraine may have a great opportunity upcoming where Russia is over-extended, ill supplied, and just wants to "chill". Unfortunately, the trained tank brigade/combined arms formations are not going to be ready in two or three weeks. So, what does Ukraine have "up it's sleeve", if anything?
It also may be true that Russia just doesn't have the wherewithal to "recharge" in three weeks/a month. There may be a major lull in the fighting as neither side is ready for more. The onus is probably on Ukraine to start driving Russia back. Timing is important. Too soon and Ukraine might not be ready "enough" to prevail. Wait too long and Russia may preempt them. That may be OK if Ukraine is ready to take advantage and hit behind a Russian attack. By May we should know. If Ukraine doesn't move before the end of May, IMO something is really wrong and they are probably toast. Ukraine has sacrificed a lot to buy time for an offense. That offense needs to manifest itself.