[Goose]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/prigozhin-cre...44205.html

It seems Prigozhin may agree that Russia will go on the defensive in Donbas "soon". It may well be true that Ukraine has moved up troops that could be used for a renewed offensive. Prigozhin and Russia may indeed fear that is what Ukraine intends and want to fight on the defensive for a while. Ukraine may indeed intend that, or to require Russia to "Honor the threat". Of course, this could also merely be precautions against further Russian successes. Maybe they did scare the bear, but I think it more probable the bear is just "out of gas" for the moment. The extent (and the time frame) of Russia reconstituting its forces in Donbas and renewing an offensive is unknown. IMO it would happen if they are "left alone" for a month or so. Ukraine may fully intend to deliver spoiling attacks in the Donbas to prevent a Russian buildup (not leave them alone) and (hopefully) focus Russian resources and attention there. Then Ukraine can (in the May time frame) deliver an armored thrust in the south that Russia is not prepared to defeat.

I don't think Ukraine has the force structure to drive Russia out of the Donbas in the near term. It also isn't, in general, great combined arms country. Too may rivers and forests. It is a good place to defend, as Ukraine has shown. If Ukraine can prevent Russia from going back on the offensive in the (relatively) near term, Ukraine can set the conditions for their own offensive to succeed. Fixing the Russians in place in Donbas is a great first step. They can't quickly transfer troops south if they are fully engaged.

[Goose]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/prigozhin-cre...44205.html

It seems Prigozhin may agree that Russia will go on the defensive in Donbas "soon". It may well be true that Ukraine has moved up troops that could be used for a renewed offensive. Prigozhin and Russia may indeed fear that is what Ukraine intends and want to fight on the defensive for a while. Ukraine may indeed intend that, or to require Russia to "Honor the threat". Of course, this could also merely be precautions against further Russian successes. Maybe they did scare the bear, but I think it more probable the bear is just "out of gas" for the moment. The extent (and the time frame) of Russia reconstituting its forces in Donbas and renewing an offensive is unknown. IMO it would happen if they are "left alone" for a month or so. Ukraine may fully intend to deliver spoiling attacks in the Donbas to prevent a Russian buildup (not leave them alone) and (hopefully) focus Russian resources and attention there. Then Ukraine can (in the May time frame) deliver an armored thrust in the south that Russia is not prepared to defeat.

I don't think Ukraine has the force structure to drive Russia out of the Donbas in the near term. It also isn't, in general, great combined arms country. Too may rivers and forests. It is a good place to defend, as Ukraine has shown. If Ukraine can prevent Russia from going back on the offensive in the (relatively) near term, Ukraine can set the conditions for their own offensive to succeed. Fixing the Russians in place in Donbas is a great first step. They can't quickly transfer troops south if they are fully engaged.