[Goose]

Couple of bits from the WSJ (sorry, might be behind a paywall, as I used up all my free links):

https://www.wsj.com/articles/eu-to-send-...jem10point

BERLIN—European Union member states backed a plan to send one million artillery shells to Ukraine over the next year as part of an arms-purchase package valued at more than $2 billion, the latest move by Western countries to improve Ukraine’s access to heavy ammunition.

Relevant because if Ukraine is chewing through 90,000 rounds a month, the shells would allow Ukraine to continue the current pace of shelling.  The question is whether the EU can produce that many.

IMO there is little doubt the EU can produce this quantity. The problem has been, and continues to be, that the manufacturers want a long term commitment to justify the investment in ramping up production. Rheinmetall all by itself can probably do it, if their CEO isn't lying. The governments OTOH aren't very willing to give long term commitments or to pay start-up costs. And so nothing happens.

It's possible that even as Russia is running into problems procuring weapons, Ukraine is running into problems mobilizing troops.  This about sums it up:

But while polls show that support for the defense effort remains high, the stock of willing volunteers now appears to be dwindling. Ukraine’s population is less than one-third the size of Russia’s, not accounting for the exodus of millions since the war began, and the kind of coercion used in Russia’s authoritarian system isn’t an option, Kyiv says.

BC

This fact of life has been the overriding backstop that Russia has been counting on. There are more Russians than Ukrainians, and if Russia can translate that to the war, Ukraine loses. Brutal, but it is the Russian way of war. IMO that is why many "Western" observers are of the opinion the Ukraine has to win this year or not at all. That is why the slow decision making/action process in the US/NATO/EU are so dangerous and possibly fatal.

That is also why the "West" has to figure out what to do if this war drags on. More of the same won't cut it. It is too late to be "all in" on Ukraine winning the war this year. The time for that was last July. Obviously we need to do all we can to help in the short term, but we need to start NOW to deal with what happens in 2024. If Ukraine "wins" before then, fine. We need a plan for if they don't and have to continue fighting.

[Goose]

Couple of bits from the WSJ (sorry, might be behind a paywall, as I used up all my free links):

https://www.wsj.com/articles/eu-to-send-...jem10point

BERLIN—European Union member states backed a plan to send one million artillery shells to Ukraine over the next year as part of an arms-purchase package valued at more than $2 billion, the latest move by Western countries to improve Ukraine’s access to heavy ammunition.

Relevant because if Ukraine is chewing through 90,000 rounds a month, the shells would allow Ukraine to continue the current pace of shelling.  The question is whether the EU can produce that many.

IMO there is little doubt the EU can produce this quantity. The problem has been, and continues to be, that the manufacturers want a long term commitment to justify the investment in ramping up production. Rheinmetall all by itself can probably do it, if their CEO isn't lying. The governments OTOH aren't very willing to give long term commitments or to pay start-up costs. And so nothing happens.

It's possible that even as Russia is running into problems procuring weapons, Ukraine is running into problems mobilizing troops.  This about sums it up:

But while polls show that support for the defense effort remains high, the stock of willing volunteers now appears to be dwindling. Ukraine’s population is less than one-third the size of Russia’s, not accounting for the exodus of millions since the war began, and the kind of coercion used in Russia’s authoritarian system isn’t an option, Kyiv says.

BC

This fact of life has been the overriding backstop that Russia has been counting on. There are more Russians than Ukrainians, and if Russia can translate that to the war, Ukraine loses. Brutal, but it is the Russian way of war. IMO that is why many "Western" observers are of the opinion the Ukraine has to win this year or not at all. That is why the slow decision making/action process in the US/NATO/EU are so dangerous and possibly fatal.

That is also why the "West" has to figure out what to do if this war drags on. More of the same won't cut it. It is too late to be "all in" on Ukraine winning the war this year. The time for that was last July. Obviously we need to do all we can to help in the short term, but we need to start NOW to deal with what happens in 2024. If Ukraine "wins" before then, fine. We need a plan for if they don't and have to continue fighting.