[Goose]

That's a very intriguing point.  I guess we will see, but we should also get some sense pretty soon, as it seems likely that Ukraine will counterattack in Bakhmut to relieve the town and the troops in the center.  If they cause a rout on the Russian troops in the area, could they advance quickly to Horlivka, and potentially get to the city of Donetsk?

BC

I think it probable Ukraine will attack near but not at Bakhmut.  They probably don't want to hit the Russian spearhead on it's point, but rather on it's side. Even if the Russian troops fight well at the start of the Ukrainian counterattack, if there is nothing behind them it won't matter. Last year in the Kharkiv Oblast it wasn't really a "rout". There just weren't any Russians behind the front lines. Ukraine moved a great distance virtually unopposed. That was actually part of the problem. While Ukraine captured lots of land, they didn't actually kill or capture that many Russians. A rout is better, in that at a minimum you get lots of prisoners. Agree, we shall see. Even a limited success will fix the Russians in place, which helps actions elsewhere.

[Goose]

That's a very intriguing point.  I guess we will see, but we should also get some sense pretty soon, as it seems likely that Ukraine will counterattack in Bakhmut to relieve the town and the troops in the center.  If they cause a rout on the Russian troops in the area, could they advance quickly to Horlivka, and potentially get to the city of Donetsk?

BC

I think it probable Ukraine will attack near but not at Bakhmut.  They probably don't want to hit the Russian spearhead on it's point, but rather on it's side. Even if the Russian troops fight well at the start of the Ukrainian counterattack, if there is nothing behind them it won't matter. Last year in the Kharkiv Oblast it wasn't really a "rout". There just weren't any Russians behind the front lines. Ukraine moved a great distance virtually unopposed. That was actually part of the problem. While Ukraine captured lots of land, they didn't actually kill or capture that many Russians. A rout is better, in that at a minimum you get lots of prisoners. Agree, we shall see. Even a limited success will fix the Russians in place, which helps actions elsewhere.