[Goose]

There is a strong tendency on the part of "the West" to assume that Russian troops/authorities are basically stupid and don't make such plans. There is certainly some history to justify this conclusion. However, there are clearly many cases of the opposite, so attaching predictive significance to such a meeting is unwise.

That was kind of my read as well, but it is less improbable than it was, say, six months ago.

BC

True! Another difference is that at one time Russia kept significant reserves in Zaporizhia because it was a central location and these reserves could (at least in theory) easily be moved either to Kherson oblast or Donbas. It appears, as near as I can tell, that this is no longer the case and most of these reserves have been moved either to Crimea where they form a defensive reserve (and do nothing) or to Donbas, where they have mostly been committed (as opposed to remaining a reserve). That does seem to make Zaporizhia a better target than before.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/crimean-occup...00387.html
If it is really true Russia has 80,000 troops in Crimea while their offensive in Bakhmut is failing due to running out of troops, that indeed says they are paranoid. These troops are also not deployed forward, but rather are building defensive works everywhere. Granted, some of these troops are being rotated out of the front lines, but it is still a lot of combat capability located in what is supposedly a "secure" area.

[Goose]

There is a strong tendency on the part of "the West" to assume that Russian troops/authorities are basically stupid and don't make such plans. There is certainly some history to justify this conclusion. However, there are clearly many cases of the opposite, so attaching predictive significance to such a meeting is unwise.

That was kind of my read as well, but it is less improbable than it was, say, six months ago.

BC

True! Another difference is that at one time Russia kept significant reserves in Zaporizhia because it was a central location and these reserves could (at least in theory) easily be moved either to Kherson oblast or Donbas. It appears, as near as I can tell, that this is no longer the case and most of these reserves have been moved either to Crimea where they form a defensive reserve (and do nothing) or to Donbas, where they have mostly been committed (as opposed to remaining a reserve). That does seem to make Zaporizhia a better target than before.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/crimean-occup...00387.html
If it is really true Russia has 80,000 troops in Crimea while their offensive in Bakhmut is failing due to running out of troops, that indeed says they are paranoid. These troops are also not deployed forward, but rather are building defensive works everywhere. Granted, some of these troops are being rotated out of the front lines, but it is still a lot of combat capability located in what is supposedly a "secure" area.