[Goose]

We sit here and observe what the U.S. will not give Ukraine, like ATCMS and air power, and wonder why not, with the need for a counteroffensive known to all. The assumption is Ukraine needs more to win, so why aren’t we giving them everything needed to do so? I’ve complained of half-measures for months now myself.



But what if Ukraine and NATO Allies actually know Ukraine is in fact being given what is needed to achieve the objectives?

Nobody can "know" Ukraine is receiving "enough". In war, you never have "enough" until you have won. The decision to restrict weapons type and numbers is based on an analysis done by "experts" that takes into account many weighting factors and is at best a guess at the probability of the outcome. Then the politicians decide based on their own arcane process what is actually "OK" and how US, Russian, and "world" governments and people will react. It is anything but precise and scientific. It may be a necessary process, but it is a very high variance one.

One under the radar reality I’m starting to appreciate is Ukraine’s use of small drone air craft. I’ve read Ukraine might be able to deploy thousands of them. These aren’t 4th gen fighters but in mass numbers kamikaze drones can be a good substitute. Not only can they be detonation threats, they can also really mess with the heads of Russian forces and be a major distraction. It’s bad enough to know yer being targeted by artillery, tanks, and mortars, but throw in being surrounded by difficult to see tiny flying vehicles that can also kill you, and it’s hard to imagine being able to actually do anything but flee or surrender. Some drones might even deliver surrender offers themselves.
 

The Iranian kamikaze drones are big and expensive, and can be shot down rather easily. Ukraine has been able to be pretty effective with much smaller and cheaper hand held ones that are too small for most air defense that is not gonna be with Russian forces because Ukraine doesn’t offer any conventional air threat.

The "mass number" of Ukrainian drones are mostly Chinese made commercial ones. They are useful for reconnaissance but are not capable of carrying enough weight to be a real "suicide drone". The kinetic effect of these drones is basically nil. Nobody is going to run away from them for that reason. There are lots of other things out there that are more probable to kill you and the Russian troops aren't fleeing those either. Being located OTOH may cause them to displace, but that may not be a retreat :-). Russian ECM is now making these drones almost useless, as the Ukrainian operators lose control of the drone after about 400 meters penetration into Russian territory. This is apparently nation wide and common now. Ukraine will undoubtedly develop new electronics to drop in these drones, which will require another development round of ECM by Russia. That hasn't happened yet and will create additional logistics/technical delays for Ukraine.

[Goose]

We sit here and observe what the U.S. will not give Ukraine, like ATCMS and air power, and wonder why not, with the need for a counteroffensive known to all. The assumption is Ukraine needs more to win, so why aren’t we giving them everything needed to do so? I’ve complained of half-measures for months now myself.



But what if Ukraine and NATO Allies actually know Ukraine is in fact being given what is needed to achieve the objectives?

Nobody can "know" Ukraine is receiving "enough". In war, you never have "enough" until you have won. The decision to restrict weapons type and numbers is based on an analysis done by "experts" that takes into account many weighting factors and is at best a guess at the probability of the outcome. Then the politicians decide based on their own arcane process what is actually "OK" and how US, Russian, and "world" governments and people will react. It is anything but precise and scientific. It may be a necessary process, but it is a very high variance one.

One under the radar reality I’m starting to appreciate is Ukraine’s use of small drone air craft. I’ve read Ukraine might be able to deploy thousands of them. These aren’t 4th gen fighters but in mass numbers kamikaze drones can be a good substitute. Not only can they be detonation threats, they can also really mess with the heads of Russian forces and be a major distraction. It’s bad enough to know yer being targeted by artillery, tanks, and mortars, but throw in being surrounded by difficult to see tiny flying vehicles that can also kill you, and it’s hard to imagine being able to actually do anything but flee or surrender. Some drones might even deliver surrender offers themselves.
 

The Iranian kamikaze drones are big and expensive, and can be shot down rather easily. Ukraine has been able to be pretty effective with much smaller and cheaper hand held ones that are too small for most air defense that is not gonna be with Russian forces because Ukraine doesn’t offer any conventional air threat.

The "mass number" of Ukrainian drones are mostly Chinese made commercial ones. They are useful for reconnaissance but are not capable of carrying enough weight to be a real "suicide drone". The kinetic effect of these drones is basically nil. Nobody is going to run away from them for that reason. There are lots of other things out there that are more probable to kill you and the Russian troops aren't fleeing those either. Being located OTOH may cause them to displace, but that may not be a retreat :-). Russian ECM is now making these drones almost useless, as the Ukrainian operators lose control of the drone after about 400 meters penetration into Russian territory. This is apparently nation wide and common now. Ukraine will undoubtedly develop new electronics to drop in these drones, which will require another development round of ECM by Russia. That hasn't happened yet and will create additional logistics/technical delays for Ukraine.