[Goose]

Do the events in Ukraine make this more likely or less likely?

Russia has no bandwidth to pick another fight, but maybe Belarus does not want to screw around and find out.

Also great questions. I obviously don't know, but there are some generalizations that might apply. If Ukraine fails to retain independence, Belarus certainly won't either. Belarus is both smaller and weaker than Ukraine and would therefore fare less well in a military conflict. The current political leadership in Belarus can not maintain power without Russian support, military, political and economic.  They actually lost the last election and are pro-Russian by necessity. Otherwise they would probably had their own version of the "Maidan Revolution".

As I understand it, the population in general would prefer to remain independent, but many of them believe absorption by Russia is inevitable because Belarus is so economically dependent there is no alternative. There are however a significant number of people in the country that don't want Russia back in control and would resist a takeover both passively and actively. The problem for that group of people is that they have no obviously viable economic plan without Russia playing a major role. Unclear where this situation will lead.

[Goose]

Do the events in Ukraine make this more likely or less likely?

Russia has no bandwidth to pick another fight, but maybe Belarus does not want to screw around and find out.

Also great questions. I obviously don't know, but there are some generalizations that might apply. If Ukraine fails to retain independence, Belarus certainly won't either. Belarus is both smaller and weaker than Ukraine and would therefore fare less well in a military conflict. The current political leadership in Belarus can not maintain power without Russian support, military, political and economic.  They actually lost the last election and are pro-Russian by necessity. Otherwise they would probably had their own version of the "Maidan Revolution".

As I understand it, the population in general would prefer to remain independent, but many of them believe absorption by Russia is inevitable because Belarus is so economically dependent there is no alternative. There are however a significant number of people in the country that don't want Russia back in control and would resist a takeover both passively and actively. The problem for that group of people is that they have no obviously viable economic plan without Russia playing a major role. Unclear where this situation will lead.