[Goose]

Goose, based on everything you know, how does Ukraine win this war?  Is it even possible, and if so, how can it be done, with the resources they have, and know everything we know about the Russians?  

Is it possible that a very successful counter offensive by Ukraine, leads to massive Russian route?  Can Crimea be retaken before next winter, or is that a pipedream?   

What would happen if Ukraine captured the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk, would the sham republics fall, leading to of immense proportions military units surrendering, or would they just move their political capital further back?   

I just wonder how this will end in a total victory for Ukraine, without a drastic change in Western support....

Obviously, I don't know nearly as much about this whole mess as many people in the military and intelligence communities in "the west" do. What I can say i do "know" is pretty obvious, and won't actually answer the questions :-). This war ends only when either Russia decides to stop fighting or Ukraine is unable to continue fighting. We have known all along that Ukraine doesn't have the military or economic power to bring Russia to it's knees and dictate terms from the Kremlin, western aid or not. This war is however an existential one for Ukraine. If they quit fighting, they are done. Russia will absorb their country. Under those conditions, the question is what does it take to make Russia decide to quit fighting? Nobody really knows, because a "rational" Russia wouldn't have done all this to begin with.

Ukraine will have about 35K troops organized in "several" battalions as a striking force. These troops will have NATO training and equipment. The troops will have experienced leaders, although many of the troops themselves have little or no combat experience. The leaders have some training in NATO tactics, but many of them have much more training/experience in Soviet-era tactics. What combat power these units can provide is basically unknown. We will know when they are tested, and even then maybe not for a while. Getting the "kinks" out of any new military unit is sometimes an iterative operation. Nobody wants to do that in the middle of a battle, but Ukraine has no choice. We know they will fight hard.

The Russians have put together somewhat of a hodgepodge defensive structure in many places in Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblast. It isn't a continuous front line, as the total number of troops required to do that is beyond anything Russia or Ukraine could do. Particularly in Kherson, where their are fewer natural terrain defenses, Russia is exposed. If Ukraine is "any good", they should be able to penetrate these defenses by bypassing strong points and masking them with infantry. These strong points are not mutually supporting and will quickly run out of ammunition and other supplies. Russia appears to be aware of this and is preparing to also defend in northern Crimea. Terrain is better for them there, but still not "great". There are big opportunities for Ukraine here. Their problem is no air cover. How big of a problem that will be depends on what Russia can generate in terms of tac air. Ukraine is worried. I would be too. OTOH, they have opportunities, potentially big ones. A second Riga would be very nice.

Zaporizhia Oblast is important because if Ukraine can cut the road and rail transport to Crimea, it is a big operational blow to Russia. Supplying/reinforcing Kherson/Crimea becomes a big problem. Ukraine doesn't need to go all they way to Berdiansk. Melitopol is far enough :-). If I were a betting man, I think this area is where Ukraine will start their offensive. They don't have too far to go to make a big difference. I obviously don't know the "correlation of forces" in that area, but Russia is quite aware of the issues. The question is, given their fighting in the Donbas, do they have the necessary troops to defend in Zaporizhia?

It all comes down to how well Ukraine fights and how well the Russians in their defensive positions fight. Lots of the Russian units are not in good shape. Supposedly, there are lots of conscripts with little/no training and no combat experience. If these units fold up quickly, Ukraine can take back lots of ground and at least enter Crimea, if not take it back. If Russia musters a large tactical air attack on the moving Ukraine combined arms units, Ukraine could be stopped literally dead in its tracks. Either are possible, along with many variations in between. It may also depend on leadership. If the Ukrainian battalion commanders can make the "right" decisions they can have effects out of all proportions to their numbers. It seems the Russians in the south are already jittery. Ukrainians showing up in unexpected places can indeed provoke a rout. The question is, if that happens, does Russia quit fighting? If it doesn't, how discouraged will Ukraine be? What is the "minimum acceptable" result that keeps the West on the side of a "military" solution? I don't know.

So, my "best case" is Ukraine enters Crimea and Putin is ousted. Russia then descends into a leadership crisis for long enough that Ukraine gets most of their land back. Donbas remains a problem, as Russia is physically too close for them to fold completely. This is how it ends, if it is to end soon. If Ukraine is less successful than this and Putin survives, it could be a long war. OTOH I am not sure how many more offensives Ukraine has in them. 8 months from now they might be the ones who collapse. We all hope not, but it is eminently possible if the citizens decide they can't win. In war, nothing is certain.

As far as the Donbas goes, that is the area Ukraine has the biggest problem. It is just too close to Russia. Russia can fight there much easier than they can in Crimea. The terrain is just too well suited to defense by entrenched infantry, as Ukraine has valiantly demonstrated. Russia was able to advance there only slowly via massed artillery. If the Russian troops will stand and fight, Ukraine is going to have big problems taking anything back. Their armored formations will be relatively useless in this terrain, as Russia keeps finding out the hard way. If the Russian troops don't want to fight, Ukraine has a good chance. Otherwise, forget it.

[Goose]

Goose, based on everything you know, how does Ukraine win this war?  Is it even possible, and if so, how can it be done, with the resources they have, and know everything we know about the Russians?  

Is it possible that a very successful counter offensive by Ukraine, leads to massive Russian route?  Can Crimea be retaken before next winter, or is that a pipedream?   

What would happen if Ukraine captured the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk, would the sham republics fall, leading to of immense proportions military units surrendering, or would they just move their political capital further back?   

I just wonder how this will end in a total victory for Ukraine, without a drastic change in Western support....

Obviously, I don't know nearly as much about this whole mess as many people in the military and intelligence communities in "the west" do. What I can say i do "know" is pretty obvious, and won't actually answer the questions :-). This war ends only when either Russia decides to stop fighting or Ukraine is unable to continue fighting. We have known all along that Ukraine doesn't have the military or economic power to bring Russia to it's knees and dictate terms from the Kremlin, western aid or not. This war is however an existential one for Ukraine. If they quit fighting, they are done. Russia will absorb their country. Under those conditions, the question is what does it take to make Russia decide to quit fighting? Nobody really knows, because a "rational" Russia wouldn't have done all this to begin with.

Ukraine will have about 35K troops organized in "several" battalions as a striking force. These troops will have NATO training and equipment. The troops will have experienced leaders, although many of the troops themselves have little or no combat experience. The leaders have some training in NATO tactics, but many of them have much more training/experience in Soviet-era tactics. What combat power these units can provide is basically unknown. We will know when they are tested, and even then maybe not for a while. Getting the "kinks" out of any new military unit is sometimes an iterative operation. Nobody wants to do that in the middle of a battle, but Ukraine has no choice. We know they will fight hard.

The Russians have put together somewhat of a hodgepodge defensive structure in many places in Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblast. It isn't a continuous front line, as the total number of troops required to do that is beyond anything Russia or Ukraine could do. Particularly in Kherson, where their are fewer natural terrain defenses, Russia is exposed. If Ukraine is "any good", they should be able to penetrate these defenses by bypassing strong points and masking them with infantry. These strong points are not mutually supporting and will quickly run out of ammunition and other supplies. Russia appears to be aware of this and is preparing to also defend in northern Crimea. Terrain is better for them there, but still not "great". There are big opportunities for Ukraine here. Their problem is no air cover. How big of a problem that will be depends on what Russia can generate in terms of tac air. Ukraine is worried. I would be too. OTOH, they have opportunities, potentially big ones. A second Riga would be very nice.

Zaporizhia Oblast is important because if Ukraine can cut the road and rail transport to Crimea, it is a big operational blow to Russia. Supplying/reinforcing Kherson/Crimea becomes a big problem. Ukraine doesn't need to go all they way to Berdiansk. Melitopol is far enough :-). If I were a betting man, I think this area is where Ukraine will start their offensive. They don't have too far to go to make a big difference. I obviously don't know the "correlation of forces" in that area, but Russia is quite aware of the issues. The question is, given their fighting in the Donbas, do they have the necessary troops to defend in Zaporizhia?

It all comes down to how well Ukraine fights and how well the Russians in their defensive positions fight. Lots of the Russian units are not in good shape. Supposedly, there are lots of conscripts with little/no training and no combat experience. If these units fold up quickly, Ukraine can take back lots of ground and at least enter Crimea, if not take it back. If Russia musters a large tactical air attack on the moving Ukraine combined arms units, Ukraine could be stopped literally dead in its tracks. Either are possible, along with many variations in between. It may also depend on leadership. If the Ukrainian battalion commanders can make the "right" decisions they can have effects out of all proportions to their numbers. It seems the Russians in the south are already jittery. Ukrainians showing up in unexpected places can indeed provoke a rout. The question is, if that happens, does Russia quit fighting? If it doesn't, how discouraged will Ukraine be? What is the "minimum acceptable" result that keeps the West on the side of a "military" solution? I don't know.

So, my "best case" is Ukraine enters Crimea and Putin is ousted. Russia then descends into a leadership crisis for long enough that Ukraine gets most of their land back. Donbas remains a problem, as Russia is physically too close for them to fold completely. This is how it ends, if it is to end soon. If Ukraine is less successful than this and Putin survives, it could be a long war. OTOH I am not sure how many more offensives Ukraine has in them. 8 months from now they might be the ones who collapse. We all hope not, but it is eminently possible if the citizens decide they can't win. In war, nothing is certain.

As far as the Donbas goes, that is the area Ukraine has the biggest problem. It is just too close to Russia. Russia can fight there much easier than they can in Crimea. The terrain is just too well suited to defense by entrenched infantry, as Ukraine has valiantly demonstrated. Russia was able to advance there only slowly via massed artillery. If the Russian troops will stand and fight, Ukraine is going to have big problems taking anything back. Their armored formations will be relatively useless in this terrain, as Russia keeps finding out the hard way. If the Russian troops don't want to fight, Ukraine has a good chance. Otherwise, forget it.