[Goose]

Interesting developments in Ukraine Air Defense over past couple days. Yesterday they shot down a Ukrainian TB2 Bayraktar, when it supposedly was out of control. And then today, they for the first time intercepted a ballistic Kinzhal missile, likely with Patriot.

It could be they intercepted it with a Patriot, but the pictures they are showing of the putative Kinzhal missile do not look at all like what a Patriot "hit" should produce. A PAC-3 "hit to kill" impact is designed to totally obliterate the target. Moving as fast as a Kinzhal supposedly does the kinetic energy alone should reduce it to rubble in a collision. A hit from a PAC-2 munition fragment will generally cause the target to (at a minimum) tumble, and the aerodynamic forces are sufficient to destroy it's structural integrity. The problem with the PAC-2 is that the warhead may survive and hit something, although not it's intended target. Yet the pictures they show are of a relatively intact missile with a hole in it. Hard to imagine how that is possible. Looks more like some kind of malfunction. Indeed curious.

Meanwhile Prigozhin is saying Wagner will leave Bakhmut on May 10 because they are not getting enough artillery ammo. Russia is evacuating frontline towns in Ukrainian territory they control.

Indeed curious. Russia has been building defensive positions quite far behind the current lines. Retreating before Ukraine actually applies pressure seems foolish, as you are giving them their "day 1" objectives for free. Hard to figure what they are thinking.

Reportedly there has been increase counter battery tempo recently in Bakhmut.

The offensive may have begun.

Yes, it may, or possibly the Russians fear it so much they are preempting the Ukrainians by retreating in order to minimize casualties. Kind of crazy, and more than a bit unusual. Why retreat in the Donbas, where Russia is actually doing better than elsewhere? Do they know something we don't? (The classic thing that keeps the opposing force commander awake at night :-). The weather isn't yet great in Ukraine and there is still quite a bit of mud, but that situation is changing rapidly.

[Goose]

Interesting developments in Ukraine Air Defense over past couple days. Yesterday they shot down a Ukrainian TB2 Bayraktar, when it supposedly was out of control. And then today, they for the first time intercepted a ballistic Kinzhal missile, likely with Patriot.

It could be they intercepted it with a Patriot, but the pictures they are showing of the putative Kinzhal missile do not look at all like what a Patriot "hit" should produce. A PAC-3 "hit to kill" impact is designed to totally obliterate the target. Moving as fast as a Kinzhal supposedly does the kinetic energy alone should reduce it to rubble in a collision. A hit from a PAC-2 munition fragment will generally cause the target to (at a minimum) tumble, and the aerodynamic forces are sufficient to destroy it's structural integrity. The problem with the PAC-2 is that the warhead may survive and hit something, although not it's intended target. Yet the pictures they show are of a relatively intact missile with a hole in it. Hard to imagine how that is possible. Looks more like some kind of malfunction. Indeed curious.

Meanwhile Prigozhin is saying Wagner will leave Bakhmut on May 10 because they are not getting enough artillery ammo. Russia is evacuating frontline towns in Ukrainian territory they control.

Indeed curious. Russia has been building defensive positions quite far behind the current lines. Retreating before Ukraine actually applies pressure seems foolish, as you are giving them their "day 1" objectives for free. Hard to figure what they are thinking.

Reportedly there has been increase counter battery tempo recently in Bakhmut.

The offensive may have begun.

Yes, it may, or possibly the Russians fear it so much they are preempting the Ukrainians by retreating in order to minimize casualties. Kind of crazy, and more than a bit unusual. Why retreat in the Donbas, where Russia is actually doing better than elsewhere? Do they know something we don't? (The classic thing that keeps the opposing force commander awake at night :-). The weather isn't yet great in Ukraine and there is still quite a bit of mud, but that situation is changing rapidly.