[Goose]

Do you think defense minister Sergei Shoigu is essentially in the same boat? He's in Putin's inner circle, and he's the guy who should be supplying the arms. How much of the ordnance budget do you think he's stolen, and how likely is it that he should really stay away from high buildings with windows that open?

Shoigu is in a different class. So far, he has been compliant with what Putin has requested and has not publicly opposed/criticized Putin. He is probably not very competent, but who in the Russian high command is, and if such a person exists he probably would not go along with Putin all the time. Thus, Shoigu is useful. What Putin does is play off the various generals against each other, and he may dismiss Shoigu as defense minister, assigning him as commander of Siberian Sled Dog Management. Shoigu will go do that, because with Putin, he may call you back to be defense minister again when and if it suits him. As long as Shoigu is not a "threat", he probably won't be killed.

Separately, how odd is it that a former caterer ended up in charge of a Russian paramilitary group?

Not real odd. Wagner is a PMC. It is in the business of making money. A caterer doesn't need to know how to cook. He does need to know what his customer wants and be able to hire the people who can deliver it. Wagner is like Blackwater. It is hired muscle that is deniable by those that use it and who will do as ordered without evaluating it's merits. Wagner has made money leading indigenous troops in potential Russian client states. Wagner itself is really only designed to actually fight minimal small unit operations against unprepared/outclassed opposition. Mercs don't take the job to get killed. The like the adrenaline rush of fighting but if things are not looking "good", they get out of Dodge.

Wagner is out of it's element in Ukraine. They took on a task they weren't resourced to accomplish. Why they did it is anyone's guess, maybe Putin gave them an offer they couldn't refuse. The prisoners/cannon fodder they used were not "Wagner", as was made very clear to them after they signed up :-). That isn't Wagner's specialty. Prigozhin undoubtedly had a contract to take Bakhmut by a certain date. That date has slipped repeatedly. The delays are costing Wagner money. Like any other good government contractor, Wagner has tried to blame the customer for the delays. Wagner's current problem is that they are looking at a default, and I doubt the Russian government gave them generous progress payments. Such a default is going to do bad things to their business, maybe force it into bankruptcy. Prigozhin has lots to worry about.

[Goose]

Do you think defense minister Sergei Shoigu is essentially in the same boat? He's in Putin's inner circle, and he's the guy who should be supplying the arms. How much of the ordnance budget do you think he's stolen, and how likely is it that he should really stay away from high buildings with windows that open?

Shoigu is in a different class. So far, he has been compliant with what Putin has requested and has not publicly opposed/criticized Putin. He is probably not very competent, but who in the Russian high command is, and if such a person exists he probably would not go along with Putin all the time. Thus, Shoigu is useful. What Putin does is play off the various generals against each other, and he may dismiss Shoigu as defense minister, assigning him as commander of Siberian Sled Dog Management. Shoigu will go do that, because with Putin, he may call you back to be defense minister again when and if it suits him. As long as Shoigu is not a "threat", he probably won't be killed.

Separately, how odd is it that a former caterer ended up in charge of a Russian paramilitary group?

Not real odd. Wagner is a PMC. It is in the business of making money. A caterer doesn't need to know how to cook. He does need to know what his customer wants and be able to hire the people who can deliver it. Wagner is like Blackwater. It is hired muscle that is deniable by those that use it and who will do as ordered without evaluating it's merits. Wagner has made money leading indigenous troops in potential Russian client states. Wagner itself is really only designed to actually fight minimal small unit operations against unprepared/outclassed opposition. Mercs don't take the job to get killed. The like the adrenaline rush of fighting but if things are not looking "good", they get out of Dodge.

Wagner is out of it's element in Ukraine. They took on a task they weren't resourced to accomplish. Why they did it is anyone's guess, maybe Putin gave them an offer they couldn't refuse. The prisoners/cannon fodder they used were not "Wagner", as was made very clear to them after they signed up :-). That isn't Wagner's specialty. Prigozhin undoubtedly had a contract to take Bakhmut by a certain date. That date has slipped repeatedly. The delays are costing Wagner money. Like any other good government contractor, Wagner has tried to blame the customer for the delays. Wagner's current problem is that they are looking at a default, and I doubt the Russian government gave them generous progress payments. Such a default is going to do bad things to their business, maybe force it into bankruptcy. Prigozhin has lots to worry about.