05-16-2023, 09:26 AM
We still lack definitive information on the Kinzhal missile interceptions, but the information we do have indicates the missiles are being intercept with high probability of success. It is probable this is greatly simplified by the Russians targeting the Patriot battery directly and not maneuvering the missile on the inbound track. In theory, the Kinzhal can do this, although doing so has a definite kinetic energy penalty. This tactic will only help if the battery loses track of the missile, which will only happen if the search sector is narrowed for some reason. Given they have so few batteries, Ukraine isn't going to do that.
Unfortunately the kill probability in any Patriot engagement is not 100%, even best case. The Russians can play games to reduce it from "best case". If they keep at it, the Russians will eventually hit the acquisition radar. That is just a fact. Moving that radar frequently makes it harder to hit. It degrades the "fix" on it's location. The Kinzhal is itself not perfectly accurate (or perfectly reliable), so that even if the missile "gets through", it may miss. That said, it is a matter of time. I hope there is a spare acquisition radar already in place. If not, Ukraine is kind of back to square one in air defense against high performance missiles.
Unfortunately the kill probability in any Patriot engagement is not 100%, even best case. The Russians can play games to reduce it from "best case". If they keep at it, the Russians will eventually hit the acquisition radar. That is just a fact. Moving that radar frequently makes it harder to hit. It degrades the "fix" on it's location. The Kinzhal is itself not perfectly accurate (or perfectly reliable), so that even if the missile "gets through", it may miss. That said, it is a matter of time. I hope there is a spare acquisition radar already in place. If not, Ukraine is kind of back to square one in air defense against high performance missiles.