[Goose]

US officials are now saying the missile barrage likely damaged, but did not destroy a patriot system.  Goose, is this likely the radar portion, or another part of the patriot system?  I'd assume if it was a launcher, and there were no missiles left in the launcher, this wouldn't be a big deal, but maybe a hit on the radar portion might put it out for a while?  Either way, it's slightly fortunate, but as you mentioned, there wasn't a 100% change of avoiding this.

No real good way to predict what was hit. The part of the battery that can be geolocated by ELINT systems is the acquisition radar. That entity can be quite exactly found. The other parts of the battery, like launchers and power generators, are usually spread about "nearby". The Russians may have available PHOTINT and HUMINT that can locate different parts of the battery exactly, but in any case the radar is what they want to hit. It is the most difficult thing to replace. The battery may have several launchers and they are much simpler items to fix/replace, in general.

Even with perfect information, the Kinzhal missile itself isn't super accurate. It has a large warhead and doesn't have to score a direct hit to do lots of damage. The Kalibr is more accurate but has a smaller warhead. It is also quite possible the Patriot was damaged by ballistic debris from a missile that it actually shot down some distance away. Flying metal fragments don't necessarily just hit the ground, and if they hit a Kinzhal during it's terminal maneuver, it could have been going downhill right above them. Clean underwear may also be required. We don't have enough information to even guess. We also don't know whether the damage renders in radar inoperable, degraded, or no effect.

[Goose]

US officials are now saying the missile barrage likely damaged, but did not destroy a patriot system.  Goose, is this likely the radar portion, or another part of the patriot system?  I'd assume if it was a launcher, and there were no missiles left in the launcher, this wouldn't be a big deal, but maybe a hit on the radar portion might put it out for a while?  Either way, it's slightly fortunate, but as you mentioned, there wasn't a 100% change of avoiding this.

No real good way to predict what was hit. The part of the battery that can be geolocated by ELINT systems is the acquisition radar. That entity can be quite exactly found. The other parts of the battery, like launchers and power generators, are usually spread about "nearby". The Russians may have available PHOTINT and HUMINT that can locate different parts of the battery exactly, but in any case the radar is what they want to hit. It is the most difficult thing to replace. The battery may have several launchers and they are much simpler items to fix/replace, in general.

Even with perfect information, the Kinzhal missile itself isn't super accurate. It has a large warhead and doesn't have to score a direct hit to do lots of damage. The Kalibr is more accurate but has a smaller warhead. It is also quite possible the Patriot was damaged by ballistic debris from a missile that it actually shot down some distance away. Flying metal fragments don't necessarily just hit the ground, and if they hit a Kinzhal during it's terminal maneuver, it could have been going downhill right above them. Clean underwear may also be required. We don't have enough information to even guess. We also don't know whether the damage renders in radar inoperable, degraded, or no effect.