(05-20-2023, 07:27 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Can someone explain the Bakhmut situation? Now seeing reports Wagner has captured the whole city, but also that Ukraine has made breakthroughs to north and south of the city. It almost seems Ukraine is letting Wagner take the middle so they can go in behind them and ultimately cut off and encircle them from behind. Makes no sense that Wagner would be bogged down there for months and then when Ukraine is ramping up counterattacks, Wagner would suddenly take all this ground.
Is Ukraine bringing in reinforcements behind the western front line of Bakhmut, to smash Wagners thinking they have won something, and then going to connect the flanks to east to surround Wagners? It seems like once out of the city there are a lot of open fields and not anywhere for Wagners to hide, which would seem to make them very vulnerable.
As per usual, Goose can probably do a better job, but I'll do my best. Bakhmut has been the main focus of Russian advance, primarily Wagner, for the past 9 months or so. While Ukraine went on their Kharkiv and Kherson offensives, Russians were on the defensive almost everywhere, except for Bakhmut. Bakhmut was a fortress for Ukraine, and used as a main supply route while Russia was trying to take Sieveirodonetsk and Lysychansk back in May. Around the new year Russia made a brobdingnagian assault on the town of Soledar which is just North East of Bakhmut, a key area in protecting the flank. It was very costly, but Russia did capture the town, and it started the threat of encirclement, because Russia was also making ground south of the town, and you could see a clear pincer attempt being formed. Instead of pulling out, Ukrainians decided to reinforce the town, despite lots of western military minds advising otherwise. While the defense of the city has been very costly for Ukraine, it's likely been even more costly for Russia, with estimates of Russian deaths in the 10's of thousands in this battle alone. The city never was fully surrounded, and the situation north and south of the city stabilized, with Ukraine able to continue to get supplies in and out. Wagner has been taking the city block by block, and have taken all but a few blocks as of this morning.
Ukraine has been conducting limited counter attacks on the flanks, taking back some of the ground north and south, but they are still losing ground in the city, and it will likely fall very soon. I doubt Ukraine is going to spend a ton of resources trying to continue their push on their flanks, as the recent attacks seem to be opportunistic and taking advantage of lightly guarded positions by inexperienced men. It's possible the counter offensive could involved a couple thunder runs north and south, trying to trap thousands of Russian troops, but that would be quite risky, and wouldn't likely result in massive amounts of liberated land, nor the closing of the land bridge to Crimea.
To add to this, it's Wagners goal as a PMC is to capture the city in full, regardless of the situation north and south, so Prigozhin can gain favor for accomplishing his task.