[gocard14]

Would have thought Zelensky's announcement that he has approved the start of the offensive would have rated a bit more here...

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/...ewnpUuAAAA

Approving the dates is not a surprise. Since we don't know what these dates are, said approval may not be immediately significant, therefor not much "buzz". It could be October for all we know :-). Probably not, but what will matter is when we see the commitment of the third armored brigade, we will know it has started. Ukraine could start a fight with one or two brigades as a feint to draw in Russian response, so even seeing some of the NATO supplied armor committed doesn't "prove" the actual offensive has started. It also wouldn't be surprising that Ukraine intends to do their usual strategy of probing for weaknesses and reinforcing success.

At this point the use of western armor has been so built up it would almost make sense to use some of it in a diversionary strike to generate a disproportionate response. 

Fair amount of reporting of uptick of storm-shadow use over the weekend, hitting barracks in Mariupol and Yerivka per report. I can't imagine Ukraine recieved too many of these and seem to be using them at a decent clip, suggesting more offensive action coming up.  It also makes you think that getting even a few F16s active would be big if that allowed the use of our JASSM stockpile.

[gocard14]

Would have thought Zelensky's announcement that he has approved the start of the offensive would have rated a bit more here...

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/...ewnpUuAAAA

Approving the dates is not a surprise. Since we don't know what these dates are, said approval may not be immediately significant, therefor not much "buzz". It could be October for all we know :-). Probably not, but what will matter is when we see the commitment of the third armored brigade, we will know it has started. Ukraine could start a fight with one or two brigades as a feint to draw in Russian response, so even seeing some of the NATO supplied armor committed doesn't "prove" the actual offensive has started. It also wouldn't be surprising that Ukraine intends to do their usual strategy of probing for weaknesses and reinforcing success.

At this point the use of western armor has been so built up it would almost make sense to use some of it in a diversionary strike to generate a disproportionate response. 

Fair amount of reporting of uptick of storm-shadow use over the weekend, hitting barracks in Mariupol and Yerivka per report. I can't imagine Ukraine recieved too many of these and seem to be using them at a decent clip, suggesting more offensive action coming up.  It also makes you think that getting even a few F16s active would be big if that allowed the use of our JASSM stockpile.