[Goose]

Fascinating result from Ukraine drone strike on Moscow. As anyone who truly understands war knows, it is always a political exercise. A country cannot engage in war unless its citizenry supports it. Divided countries can’t win. There are many ways to create divisions in a body politic. One of the standards is to create one between the elite and the unwashed masses. The other is to deliver kinetic damage to country.

Historically, one of the best ways to unite a divided country is for another country to deliver (or threaten to deliver) "external damage" (real or imagined) to the "target" country.

Putin has tried this on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure but Ukrainians are stronger than he assumed and are wise to his tactics.

Yep, see above. The 2014 invasion of Crimea united Ukraine like nothing before it, and the subsequent actions have merely forged that iron into steel.

I don’t think Russians are as tough and they deep down don’t like Putin and will not fight or endure pain for him if they have free choice.

Many "western" politicians/psychologists/generals throughout history have "gone broke" assuming Russians aren't tough and trying to figure out what their "real" loyalties are. In point of fact, every Russian under about 30 knows that Putin was a "better" alternative than democracy under Yeltsin because Putin brought order and some prosperity out of chaos. Everybody older than that sees Putin as no worse than their communist dictators, and certainly better than their brief experience in a "free" society. You and I may not see it that way, but most Russians do. That said, Russian's idea of loyalty and patriotism is much different than the ones we like to think exists in the "west". They will cheat "the state" while at the same time defending the state. Figuring this out has defied historical explanation and continues to do so. Look at how much is published on exactly this topic. Therefore, assuming that "Russia is divided" and that "Russians won't fight" is probably pretty dangerous.

Bringing the war to their doorsteps is probably one of the best ways to convince Russians (collectively) that Ukraine really IS a threat that must be eliminated. Never mind "they started it". The Russian man in the street simply doesn't care about that. What he does care about is losing. If the man in the street sees Russia in a war it cannot /is not winning, then Putin loses his status as the best available alternative. However, a drone strike on the capital doesn't do that. Lots more body bags and POWs is Ukraine's best bet to accomplish that. The drone strike was the Ukrainian Doolittle Raid. It is great for Ukrainian morale. It does little to collective Russian morale, although it may make some Russian generals very nervous. Hopefully, like the Doolittle Raid, it will cause these generals to dedicate unnecessary numbers of assets to local air defense.

[Goose]

Fascinating result from Ukraine drone strike on Moscow. As anyone who truly understands war knows, it is always a political exercise. A country cannot engage in war unless its citizenry supports it. Divided countries can’t win. There are many ways to create divisions in a body politic. One of the standards is to create one between the elite and the unwashed masses. The other is to deliver kinetic damage to country.

Historically, one of the best ways to unite a divided country is for another country to deliver (or threaten to deliver) "external damage" (real or imagined) to the "target" country.

Putin has tried this on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure but Ukrainians are stronger than he assumed and are wise to his tactics.

Yep, see above. The 2014 invasion of Crimea united Ukraine like nothing before it, and the subsequent actions have merely forged that iron into steel.

I don’t think Russians are as tough and they deep down don’t like Putin and will not fight or endure pain for him if they have free choice.

Many "western" politicians/psychologists/generals throughout history have "gone broke" assuming Russians aren't tough and trying to figure out what their "real" loyalties are. In point of fact, every Russian under about 30 knows that Putin was a "better" alternative than democracy under Yeltsin because Putin brought order and some prosperity out of chaos. Everybody older than that sees Putin as no worse than their communist dictators, and certainly better than their brief experience in a "free" society. You and I may not see it that way, but most Russians do. That said, Russian's idea of loyalty and patriotism is much different than the ones we like to think exists in the "west". They will cheat "the state" while at the same time defending the state. Figuring this out has defied historical explanation and continues to do so. Look at how much is published on exactly this topic. Therefore, assuming that "Russia is divided" and that "Russians won't fight" is probably pretty dangerous.

Bringing the war to their doorsteps is probably one of the best ways to convince Russians (collectively) that Ukraine really IS a threat that must be eliminated. Never mind "they started it". The Russian man in the street simply doesn't care about that. What he does care about is losing. If the man in the street sees Russia in a war it cannot /is not winning, then Putin loses his status as the best available alternative. However, a drone strike on the capital doesn't do that. Lots more body bags and POWs is Ukraine's best bet to accomplish that. The drone strike was the Ukrainian Doolittle Raid. It is great for Ukrainian morale. It does little to collective Russian morale, although it may make some Russian generals very nervous. Hopefully, like the Doolittle Raid, it will cause these generals to dedicate unnecessary numbers of assets to local air defense.