[Leftcoast]

I do not believe the war has materially changed how countries treat their  nuclear proliferation calculations or “trust” in the UN as an effective ally against an aggressive and more powerful neighbor.  Not after the ample examples in the last 30 years. Real Politik has diminished but not disappeared particularly if you border Russia.

In fact, if I’m a neighbor of Russia I’m encouraged.  Regardless of outcome Russia will emerge weaker and less confident they can roll over there neighbors - good news for Poland, the Baltic states, and the Asian breakaways.

And just as before any Russian border state would prefer NATO membership over faith in the UN.

It’s also true that the post WWII international order maligned in that tweet drastically reduced the number of annexations and border wars compared with any comparable period in the last millennia and it’s WAY too early to say it will fail in Ukraine.

[Leftcoast]

I do not believe the war has materially changed how countries treat their  nuclear proliferation calculations or “trust” in the UN as an effective ally against an aggressive and more powerful neighbor.  Not after the ample examples in the last 30 years. Real Politik has diminished but not disappeared particularly if you border Russia.

In fact, if I’m a neighbor of Russia I’m encouraged.  Regardless of outcome Russia will emerge weaker and less confident they can roll over there neighbors - good news for Poland, the Baltic states, and the Asian breakaways.

And just as before any Russian border state would prefer NATO membership over faith in the UN.

It’s also true that the post WWII international order maligned in that tweet drastically reduced the number of annexations and border wars compared with any comparable period in the last millennia and it’s WAY too early to say it will fail in Ukraine.