[Goose]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/erdogan-slams...28348.html

For those of you who still expected this issue to just go away, it should seem clear at this late date that simply isn't going to happen. This is very much NOT a good look for NATO, and I don't see a way ahead. Bribing or threatening Erdoğan simply hasn't worked, and probably will not work. The US relationship with Türkiye is not good enough to allow us to "reason together". The US is in a difficult position because what Türkiye is becoming/has become is not compatible with our "world view". In Erdoğan's world, if a government (Sweden) doesn't like what somebody is doing, they stop them from doing it, period. If that government doesn't stop them, they support it. The "freedom of expression" argument simply doesn't have any traction or sympathy.

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Here's Seymour Hersh reporting the view of an unnamed source "in the American intelligence community":

"... the big army and Putin slowly changed their strategy from offensive conquest of greater Ukraine to defense of what they already had. Prigo refused to accept the change and continued on the offensive against Bakhmut. Therein lies the rub. Rather than create a public crisis and court-martial the asshole [Prigozhin], Moscow simply withheld the resources and let Prigo use up his manpower and firepower reserves, dooming him to a stand-down. He is, after all, no matter how cunning financially, an ex-hot dog cart owner with no political or military accomplishments.

This view ignores the fact that whatever else, "Prigo" had a contract to take Bakhmut. If Putin had really agreed with the concept that Russia should fully go on the defensive, all he had to do was cancel the contract and pay up. He didn't do that. Why? That action doesn't "square" with the idea Putin agreed. I suspect he was playing both sides against each other. Prigo lost that battle and instead of waiting for "next time", he went rogue.

“What we never heard is three months ago Wagner was cycled out of the Bakhmut front and sent to an abandoned barracks north of Rostov-on-Don [in southern Russia] for demobilization. The heavy equipment was mostly redistributed, and the force was reduced to about 8,000, 2,000 of which left for Rostov escorted by local police.

“Putin fully backed the army who let Prigo make a fool of himself and now disappear into ignominy. All without raising a sweat militarily or causing Putin to face a political standoff with the fundamentalists, who were ardent Prigo admirers. Pretty shrewd.” 

Yes, it was pretty shrewd on the part of the military, but not shrewd by Putin. He has a public relations black eye of large proportions to deal with. The military is now in the position they have to "succeed" in Ukraine, whatever that is. One could argue they are no worse off, as that was on their plate anyway. The difference is that now they don't have the services of the crazed but sometimes effective Wagner forces. The military no longer risks sharing credit, but so too blame.

https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/prig...dium=email

It's a good theory presented by a major critic of American support for Ukraine in this war, so keep that in mind.

I think analyses that conclude Putin acted "shrewdly" foolishly downplay what seems to be widening dysfunction within Russia's fighting forces, which I do believe is good for Ukraine. However, I feel like too many American talking heads overstate things the other way, painting a picture of a Russian military basically teetering on the verge of collapse w/mass desertions. We'll see, but it doesn't seem very likely to me.

I totally agree with your thoughts. Putin was "played" by both sides in this action. He was responding to events, not shaping them.

[Goose]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/erdogan-slams...28348.html

For those of you who still expected this issue to just go away, it should seem clear at this late date that simply isn't going to happen. This is very much NOT a good look for NATO, and I don't see a way ahead. Bribing or threatening Erdoğan simply hasn't worked, and probably will not work. The US relationship with Türkiye is not good enough to allow us to "reason together". The US is in a difficult position because what Türkiye is becoming/has become is not compatible with our "world view". In Erdoğan's world, if a government (Sweden) doesn't like what somebody is doing, they stop them from doing it, period. If that government doesn't stop them, they support it. The "freedom of expression" argument simply doesn't have any traction or sympathy.

---

Here's Seymour Hersh reporting the view of an unnamed source "in the American intelligence community":

"... the big army and Putin slowly changed their strategy from offensive conquest of greater Ukraine to defense of what they already had. Prigo refused to accept the change and continued on the offensive against Bakhmut. Therein lies the rub. Rather than create a public crisis and court-martial the asshole [Prigozhin], Moscow simply withheld the resources and let Prigo use up his manpower and firepower reserves, dooming him to a stand-down. He is, after all, no matter how cunning financially, an ex-hot dog cart owner with no political or military accomplishments.

This view ignores the fact that whatever else, "Prigo" had a contract to take Bakhmut. If Putin had really agreed with the concept that Russia should fully go on the defensive, all he had to do was cancel the contract and pay up. He didn't do that. Why? That action doesn't "square" with the idea Putin agreed. I suspect he was playing both sides against each other. Prigo lost that battle and instead of waiting for "next time", he went rogue.

“What we never heard is three months ago Wagner was cycled out of the Bakhmut front and sent to an abandoned barracks north of Rostov-on-Don [in southern Russia] for demobilization. The heavy equipment was mostly redistributed, and the force was reduced to about 8,000, 2,000 of which left for Rostov escorted by local police.

“Putin fully backed the army who let Prigo make a fool of himself and now disappear into ignominy. All without raising a sweat militarily or causing Putin to face a political standoff with the fundamentalists, who were ardent Prigo admirers. Pretty shrewd.” 

Yes, it was pretty shrewd on the part of the military, but not shrewd by Putin. He has a public relations black eye of large proportions to deal with. The military is now in the position they have to "succeed" in Ukraine, whatever that is. One could argue they are no worse off, as that was on their plate anyway. The difference is that now they don't have the services of the crazed but sometimes effective Wagner forces. The military no longer risks sharing credit, but so too blame.

https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/prig...dium=email

It's a good theory presented by a major critic of American support for Ukraine in this war, so keep that in mind.

I think analyses that conclude Putin acted "shrewdly" foolishly downplay what seems to be widening dysfunction within Russia's fighting forces, which I do believe is good for Ukraine. However, I feel like too many American talking heads overstate things the other way, painting a picture of a Russian military basically teetering on the verge of collapse w/mass desertions. We'll see, but it doesn't seem very likely to me.

I totally agree with your thoughts. Putin was "played" by both sides in this action. He was responding to events, not shaping them.