(06-29-2023, 11:38 AM)dabigv13 Wrote: IMHO Erdogan will fold at some point. There is little functional difference in any case as Sweden is in NATO now in pretty much everything but name, which is probably why his dithering on this isnt really eliciting much overt Western reaction.FWLIW, my read on the subject is much different. Sweden is most definitely not yet in NATO and there are barriers as to what they are able to do. The willingness to accept stationing of NATO troops in Sweden, which as been approved, is not without some legal jeopardy. The real problem is that the Swedes themselves are not happy with how they are being treated. For many Swedes (including many in the military), joining NATO and giving up their long cherished military independence was somewhat of a bitter pill. Now, being held hostage by a rogue NATO member isn't making them very happy at all. It reinforces the idea that Sweden can get the benefits of NATO without being in it. That idea is indeed dangerous to their application.
IMO the fact there is no overt Western reaction is the simple realization that any public or private pressure is just going to make Erdoğan dig in deeper. That is exactly the wrong thing to do ATM and both We and Erdoğan know it.
