(07-16-2023, 08:59 PM)81alum Wrote: Once again, I find myself wanting to consult Goose's expert advice on a NYT article:IMO pretty correct. I doubt Ukraine was surprised at the extent of the Russian minefields. I believe they thought mine clearance would be easier than it has been. Minefields that are not defended and overwatched are easy to clear. Ones that are defended are very difficult to clear and Russia is in most cases defending. Russia has had a year to build these defenses. In most places, Ukraine has not yet reached the MLR.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/16/world...mines.html
According to the article, Ukraine was not sufficiently prepared for the variety, quantity, or depth of Russian land mines, and the mines have (almost by themselves) bogged down the "counteroffensive." Having enormous quantities of land mines is certainly unrelated to the morale or quality of Russian troops, so it would hardly seem to matter that Ukrainian forces have high morale and Russian forces have low morale--in this respect.
US armored vehicles (like the Bradley) save lives but don't really help with a breakthrough. They get immobilized by anti-tank mines. Certainly better to be in one than not, since it saves your legs. But it doesn't exactly create a mobile battlefield.
All in all, it seems pretty pessimistic. The Russians can make up with mines what they lack with everything else. Or so the article implies. Thoughts?
The good news is that Ukraine's superior morale appears to be driving them forward not with reckless courage but rather dogged determination. Whenever they have come into direct contact, they seem to prevail, sometimes after a very long slugging match. Russia has more troops but these troops seem to be suffering a greater casualty rate than Ukraine, in so far as we are informed. Ukraine is attempting to force Russia to commit all their reserves so they have no maneuver force behind them. Based on the bitching level from some Russian commanders, that may be working. If Ukraine is really starting to win the counter-batter fight (as reported) then the Russian forces will really be fixed in place.
Ukraine is also attempting to disrupt Russian logistics, and there is some evidence it is having an effect. What Ukraine now needs is a breakthrough someplace where they can exploit the Russian interior lines of communication that are not mined and not strongly defended. Ukraine wants to do that before winter.
Russia does have quite a few secondary (or more) lines of defense. Ukraine's intent is that these lines will be lightly manned because everybody is committed "up front". Historically, Russia's record regarding second lines of defense is not very good. However, there are exceptions (Kursk). Hopefully Ukraine has visibility into this. The bad news is that Ukraine really has no other choice if it wants to expel the Russians. It has to fight as many lines as there are. IMO, that is where Ukrainian morale could become a problem. Let's hope those secondary lines are thinly manned or that the troops run. If not, it could be a very long winter.