[GK3]

The Black Sea grain deal seems like a particularly big loss, and I hope the agreement is salvageable

Lots of people are trying to preserve it, including Erdoğan. The Kerch bridge attack isn't going to put Russia in an accommodating mood, if they ever were. It would be great if Ukraine could indeed continue exporting outside of the agreement. If they can, or Russia thinks they can, resurrecting the agreement will at least give Russia some benefit they otherwise would forgo. I think that is the best hope there is. Ukraine is not in any mood to grant any more concessions than they already did to get the original deal.

The vast majority of the ships carrying grain out of Ukraine are foreign-flagged. Most of the trip is in either international waters or Romanian / Turkish waters. Part of the voyage is obviously in Ukrainian waters, but a relatively small part of it. The real problem is insurance. If nobody will write the policies at reasonable rates, there will be no exports. The Russian navy is much weaker today than it was previously. Attacking foreign-flagged ships while they are in Ukrainian waters may be beyond their surface fleet's capabilities. Submarines can do it, but will Russia risk these cruise-missile carriers by using them as commerce raiders? If "somebody" will pony up the money to insure the ships, we may find out. Could be interesting.

I get the insurance issue so my next question is whether or not it is really impractical to ship the grain by rail?  As it is they have to get the stuff to Odessa to start.  I know one of the major grain growing region borders Moldova so Odessa is not so far away, nor is taking the grain across the border into Moldova.  Of course Moldova may want to stay as neutral as possible.  Maybe it is just a case of you can't move enough bulk unless you move it by ship.

[GK3]

The Black Sea grain deal seems like a particularly big loss, and I hope the agreement is salvageable

Lots of people are trying to preserve it, including Erdoğan. The Kerch bridge attack isn't going to put Russia in an accommodating mood, if they ever were. It would be great if Ukraine could indeed continue exporting outside of the agreement. If they can, or Russia thinks they can, resurrecting the agreement will at least give Russia some benefit they otherwise would forgo. I think that is the best hope there is. Ukraine is not in any mood to grant any more concessions than they already did to get the original deal.

The vast majority of the ships carrying grain out of Ukraine are foreign-flagged. Most of the trip is in either international waters or Romanian / Turkish waters. Part of the voyage is obviously in Ukrainian waters, but a relatively small part of it. The real problem is insurance. If nobody will write the policies at reasonable rates, there will be no exports. The Russian navy is much weaker today than it was previously. Attacking foreign-flagged ships while they are in Ukrainian waters may be beyond their surface fleet's capabilities. Submarines can do it, but will Russia risk these cruise-missile carriers by using them as commerce raiders? If "somebody" will pony up the money to insure the ships, we may find out. Could be interesting.

I get the insurance issue so my next question is whether or not it is really impractical to ship the grain by rail?  As it is they have to get the stuff to Odessa to start.  I know one of the major grain growing region borders Moldova so Odessa is not so far away, nor is taking the grain across the border into Moldova.  Of course Moldova may want to stay as neutral as possible.  Maybe it is just a case of you can't move enough bulk unless you move it by ship.