[Mick]

The Black Sea grain deal seems like a particularly big loss, and I hope the agreement is salvageable

Lots of people are trying to preserve it, including Erdoğan. The Kerch bridge attack isn't going to put Russia in an accommodating mood, if they ever were. It would be great if Ukraine could indeed continue exporting outside of the agreement. If they can, or Russia thinks they can, resurrecting the agreement will at least give Russia some benefit they otherwise would forgo. I think that is the best hope there is. Ukraine is not in any mood to grant any more concessions than they already did to get the original deal.

The vast majority of the ships carrying grain out of Ukraine are foreign-flagged. Most of the trip is in either international waters or Romanian / Turkish waters. Part of the voyage is obviously in Ukrainian waters, but a relatively small part of it. The real problem is insurance. If nobody will write the policies at reasonable rates, there will be no exports. The Russian navy is much weaker today than it was previously. Attacking foreign-flagged ships while they are in Ukrainian waters may be beyond their surface fleet's capabilities. Submarines can do it, but will Russia risk these cruise-missile carriers by using them as commerce raiders? If "somebody" will pony up the money to insure the ships, we may find out. Could be interesting.

I realize that Ukraine's ability to export wheat is critical to global foodstuff production and consumption. I seem to recall that they were #4 or #5 in global wheat exports. But Ukraine is a significant global exporter of other crops, including (with global rank):

- Sunflowers/sunflower oil (#2)
- Gooseberries (#2)
- Currants (#3)
- Buckwheat (#3)
- Pumpkins/squash/gourds (#3)
- Cucumbers (#4)
- Potatoes (#4)
- Cabbage/other brassicas (#5)
- Carrot/turnips (#5),

That's an awful lot of agricultural production at risk from making it into global markets. I realize we won't feel it much here (if at all), but I imagine there are places in the world that will be severely disadvantaged.

Russia Terminates the Black Sea Grain Deal (My Thoughts from the Last Year) || Peter Zeihan - YouTube

List of largest producing countries of agricultural commodities - Wikipedia

[Mick]

The Black Sea grain deal seems like a particularly big loss, and I hope the agreement is salvageable

Lots of people are trying to preserve it, including Erdoğan. The Kerch bridge attack isn't going to put Russia in an accommodating mood, if they ever were. It would be great if Ukraine could indeed continue exporting outside of the agreement. If they can, or Russia thinks they can, resurrecting the agreement will at least give Russia some benefit they otherwise would forgo. I think that is the best hope there is. Ukraine is not in any mood to grant any more concessions than they already did to get the original deal.

The vast majority of the ships carrying grain out of Ukraine are foreign-flagged. Most of the trip is in either international waters or Romanian / Turkish waters. Part of the voyage is obviously in Ukrainian waters, but a relatively small part of it. The real problem is insurance. If nobody will write the policies at reasonable rates, there will be no exports. The Russian navy is much weaker today than it was previously. Attacking foreign-flagged ships while they are in Ukrainian waters may be beyond their surface fleet's capabilities. Submarines can do it, but will Russia risk these cruise-missile carriers by using them as commerce raiders? If "somebody" will pony up the money to insure the ships, we may find out. Could be interesting.

I realize that Ukraine's ability to export wheat is critical to global foodstuff production and consumption. I seem to recall that they were #4 or #5 in global wheat exports. But Ukraine is a significant global exporter of other crops, including (with global rank):

- Sunflowers/sunflower oil (#2)
- Gooseberries (#2)
- Currants (#3)
- Buckwheat (#3)
- Pumpkins/squash/gourds (#3)
- Cucumbers (#4)
- Potatoes (#4)
- Cabbage/other brassicas (#5)
- Carrot/turnips (#5),

That's an awful lot of agricultural production at risk from making it into global markets. I realize we won't feel it much here (if at all), but I imagine there are places in the world that will be severely disadvantaged.

Russia Terminates the Black Sea Grain Deal (My Thoughts from the Last Year) || Peter Zeihan - YouTube

List of largest producing countries of agricultural commodities - Wikipedia