08-27-2023, 05:39 AM
It sure looks like Ukraine is soon to be in Tokmak. This is significant because it will put Melitopol and the supply route from mainland Russia to west of that city in HIMARS range. Ukraine isn't done with the Kerch Bridge either. So it seems like in about a week or two all of Crimea and all territory west of Melitopol could be cut off from supplies. It will just be a matter of time until Russian forces wear down to the point they can no longer fight.
Another thing I picked up on is that the Ukraine landing on Crimea this week has inspired Ukraine partisans in Crimea to help out Ukrainian forces with either intelligence sharing or sabotage operations. One of the top priorities for Ukraine is to make Crimea feel vulnerable.
You can see why Russia is planning another mobilization in September. The problem for Russia that can't be overcome is equipment losses. They simply are running out of tanks and artillery. Ukraine may be outmanned, but it is much better supplied with better weapons, to say nothing of the morale discrepancy.
If I were to guess, Ukraine will take a stalemate in the East for the time being in order to make gains in the South. Everyone knows Crimea is Putin's most coveted captured territory. If Ukraine takes it back, the humiliation for Putin will be staggering. Hard to see him surviving such a development. It also is my guess that in terms of any kind of negotiated settlement, Russia will be far more likely to withdraw from the East after losing Crimea, than withdraw from Crimea after losing the East.
Another thing I picked up on is that the Ukraine landing on Crimea this week has inspired Ukraine partisans in Crimea to help out Ukrainian forces with either intelligence sharing or sabotage operations. One of the top priorities for Ukraine is to make Crimea feel vulnerable.
You can see why Russia is planning another mobilization in September. The problem for Russia that can't be overcome is equipment losses. They simply are running out of tanks and artillery. Ukraine may be outmanned, but it is much better supplied with better weapons, to say nothing of the morale discrepancy.
If I were to guess, Ukraine will take a stalemate in the East for the time being in order to make gains in the South. Everyone knows Crimea is Putin's most coveted captured territory. If Ukraine takes it back, the humiliation for Putin will be staggering. Hard to see him surviving such a development. It also is my guess that in terms of any kind of negotiated settlement, Russia will be far more likely to withdraw from the East after losing Crimea, than withdraw from Crimea after losing the East.