[Goose]

Goose, with ATACMS/Storm Shadow missiles, assuming at least one or more missiles score a direct hit, will this for sure lead to the Kerch bridge being destroyed (at least in one section) or will the results be similar to the HIMARS strikes on the Antonov bridge last year? I think clearly the train section of the bridge is what matters, and taking that out for an extended period of time could make a big difference. While the first attack took that part out for a period of time, it seems to mostly be luck, since there was an oil tanker train at the same time. The most recent attack in the bridge I believe had two hits, but the one on the train section didn’t seem to be effective.

Storm Shadow has a bigger warhead than ATACMS by almost a factor of 2, 400 kG vs 500 lbs. The result of a single hit on the rail bridge, which is indeed the most important, is hard to predict. A Storm Shadow should be able to use it's imaging capability to actually hit a support tower, which is what could actually bring down the bridge. How well that works in practice is unclear. For sure, I wouldn't bet on a single missile doing the job. It may take several, but the bridge can be taken down. It just may take quite a few attacks.

A Taurus missile would be even better option, with a 480 kg warhead that is supposedly even more capable than a Storm Shadow. Unclear if Ukraine will ever get these weapons. It appears that ATACMS is still off the table. I am not surprised at this. I am surprised that it keeps being raised as a possibility. It would be a major policy change to do this and is therefore unlikely.

An attack by a submerged drone would potentially be better. It can carry a larger warhead, and can be detonated under water near a support pillar. That is the best kind of explosion to take down the bridge. The water hammer can more easily destroy the structure than an explosion in free air. The technology to do that isn't beyond the state of the art, but it also isn't exactly COTS. I would be surprised if Ukraine isn't working on it. In the meantime, Storm Shadows will be tried (repeatedly) I would imagine.

[Goose]

Goose, with ATACMS/Storm Shadow missiles, assuming at least one or more missiles score a direct hit, will this for sure lead to the Kerch bridge being destroyed (at least in one section) or will the results be similar to the HIMARS strikes on the Antonov bridge last year? I think clearly the train section of the bridge is what matters, and taking that out for an extended period of time could make a big difference. While the first attack took that part out for a period of time, it seems to mostly be luck, since there was an oil tanker train at the same time. The most recent attack in the bridge I believe had two hits, but the one on the train section didn’t seem to be effective.

Storm Shadow has a bigger warhead than ATACMS by almost a factor of 2, 400 kG vs 500 lbs. The result of a single hit on the rail bridge, which is indeed the most important, is hard to predict. A Storm Shadow should be able to use it's imaging capability to actually hit a support tower, which is what could actually bring down the bridge. How well that works in practice is unclear. For sure, I wouldn't bet on a single missile doing the job. It may take several, but the bridge can be taken down. It just may take quite a few attacks.

A Taurus missile would be even better option, with a 480 kg warhead that is supposedly even more capable than a Storm Shadow. Unclear if Ukraine will ever get these weapons. It appears that ATACMS is still off the table. I am not surprised at this. I am surprised that it keeps being raised as a possibility. It would be a major policy change to do this and is therefore unlikely.

An attack by a submerged drone would potentially be better. It can carry a larger warhead, and can be detonated under water near a support pillar. That is the best kind of explosion to take down the bridge. The water hammer can more easily destroy the structure than an explosion in free air. The technology to do that isn't beyond the state of the art, but it also isn't exactly COTS. I would be surprised if Ukraine isn't working on it. In the meantime, Storm Shadows will be tried (repeatedly) I would imagine.