[81alum]

Today's NYT front page story on the nearly complete stagnation of the front lines is disheartening.  The maps that visually show the lack of progress puts things in perspective. 

Since January 1, Russia has actually gained twice as much ground as Ukraine has.  But the amount of ground that either side has gained is less than the city limits of Kiev--a tiny amount.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023...-line.html

I guess I thought that the Ukrainian offensive had made some difficult progress, but it is barely a blip on the map and balanced by similar gains by Russia on other parts of the line.

Several of you with military backgrounds will no doubt have much keener insights than I have.  But my instincts to view this war as WWI-like just seem to be strengthened by stories like this.  Will this war continue, with minimal shifts in the lines, until attrition gets so bad that someone has to give up?  That the end will come not because one side seizes key territory or "breaks through" but instead will come when one side concludes that the casualties are just not worth continuing?

Count me as a skeptic that new weapons systems (air power, atacms, etc.) or better training will arrive in time to fundamentally change this highly static situation.  Hopefully one of you can dispel my pessimism and give me some reason to be hopeful.

[81alum]

Today's NYT front page story on the nearly complete stagnation of the front lines is disheartening.  The maps that visually show the lack of progress puts things in perspective. 

Since January 1, Russia has actually gained twice as much ground as Ukraine has.  But the amount of ground that either side has gained is less than the city limits of Kiev--a tiny amount.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023...-line.html

I guess I thought that the Ukrainian offensive had made some difficult progress, but it is barely a blip on the map and balanced by similar gains by Russia on other parts of the line.

Several of you with military backgrounds will no doubt have much keener insights than I have.  But my instincts to view this war as WWI-like just seem to be strengthened by stories like this.  Will this war continue, with minimal shifts in the lines, until attrition gets so bad that someone has to give up?  That the end will come not because one side seizes key territory or "breaks through" but instead will come when one side concludes that the casualties are just not worth continuing?

Count me as a skeptic that new weapons systems (air power, atacms, etc.) or better training will arrive in time to fundamentally change this highly static situation.  Hopefully one of you can dispel my pessimism and give me some reason to be hopeful.