(10-09-2023, 02:41 PM)TrumpCard Wrote: This feels like a stretch. Lebanon has very little power. It is Iran's puppet. Terrorist activity emanating from Lebanon has occasion been a distraction to Israel, but it is not a significant drain on U.S. influence in the world or even in the region.IMO this evaluation is incorrect. The history of the conflict in Lebanon shows clearly the the US went from having significant interests and influence in a country (Lebanon) that was somewhat "stable" and "western oriented" to a situation where the US has no influence in Lebanon and Iran does what it wants, more or less, in a country that really has little or no government. Both The US and Israel have sent troops to occupy parts of Lebanon and neither has any there today, simply because it was too expensive in blood and treasure to even attempt to maintain order there. There is very much a message to the nations and people in the middle east. The US and Israel can't protect you and will leave if the going gets tough. It also requires the IDF to maintain a border force in the area. This is for certain a drag on their manpower. Israel also has to be aware that Syria can use southern Lebanon as a route of attack. Maybe not "soon", but it can't be ignored.
UPDATE: And Israel isn't:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/israel-strike...01934.html
Quote:The situation in Yemen is pretty complicated because of tribal conflicts, but I don't think chaos in Yemen is of substantial value to Russia either. There are rebellions in Yemen that distract Saudi Arabia, and SA is somewhat aligned with US interests in the region because both SA and the US are enemies of Iran. But, as with the situation in Lebanon, I don't see anything happening in Yemen as a big enough issue to reduce US influence in the region. The effect is generalized "chaos" seems too small to help Russia, whether in these two places or in connection with the Israeli/Palestinian conflict.The US has for quite some time been committed to supporting the "legitimate" (whatever that means) government in Yemen. US warships have been fired upon and returned fire. Yet, despite all our efforts, chaos continues. Again, this shows the limits of US power in the region. Whenever we are trying to influence events via diplomatic efforts, our potential partners look at Yemen and say to themselves "Well, the US can't deliver there. Why should we risk that they can/will for us?". This absolutely does help both Russia and Iran influence events.
Quote:But don't take my word for it. The proof is in the pudding. Has Russia ever been shown to have done anything substantial to support the Palestinians? Again, maybe I missed it. That's just not something I've read.Well, if you go back to PLO days and Arafat, Russia certainly did a lot, both overtly and covertly to help the PLO. In fact, the fall of the Soviet Union was a major factor in producing the Oslo Accords. The PLO needed money that Russia wasn't giving them anymore. Today, Russia is obviously of much more limited means. However, Russia certainly does support Palestinian efforts in the UN to censure Israel. Russia also gets a lot of "help" from Iran in the direct provision of arms to Hamas and therefore to activities in Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen. It is very important to note that many of the arms seized by the US Navy patrols headed to Yemen are Russian in origin. So, yes, Russia is still "playing" in so far as their limited means allow. Russia is also paying Iran for the drones and such with military hardware, some of which makes its way to Gaza and Lebanon.
