[Goose]

Unitary warhead ATACMS would be a pretty good weapon for taking out Kerch bridge. Storm Shadow/SCALP, a British/French cruise missile that Ukraine already fields would also be a good weapon, as would the German Taurus, not yet supplied. These have more dedicated pentration warheads as compared to ATACMS which would be useful for destroying a bridge, but may be somewhat easier for air defense to intercept as they are slower.

Probably a handful for express purpose of destroying the bridge would be good. But it does seem there are some red line escalation concerns around the bridge; Ukraine has not used any Storm Shadows/SCALP missiles for this purpose, they have only used a truck bomb and Ukrainian made naval drones. Germany has expressly said they don't want to send Taurus because they don't want it to blow up Kerch bridge. So maybe the US is also wary of supplying the weapon that destroys the bridge. Unclear.

StormShadow needs to be air-launched, and doing so from Ukrainian air space using their available MIG/SUKHOI platforms is pretty "iffy". To get the 300 mile range, you have to launch it from relatively high altitude. That makes the launch platform a sitting duck. You also need to be pointed pretty close to boresight on the target. Not impossible, but very risky. This means the missile itself at launch is also a sitting duck. It is also detected and therefore can't sneak through "under the radar".

The alternative of a low-altitude dash to reduce the range to the point you can launch it from low altitude is the best way to approach the problem. You may need HARMs to suppress some Russian air defense systems. You  may also need a CAP to protect the strike from the Russian fighter BARCAP. You may also need jamming capability to allow you to live long enough to do the job. Most of the MIGS are too short-legged and aren't designed to do this kind of mission. F-16s can do this. Too bad Ukraine doesn't have any (yet).

Could Ukraine manufacture ATACMS? Ukraine has a indigenous capabilities in this area, as seen by the Neptune cruise missiles that took out Moskva and other targets, as well as the Stugna ATGM which has been very effective, both made by the Ukrainian Luch Design Bureau. They have made agreements with Western arms manufacturers to produce and repair things insidd of Ukraine. 

Yes, and after 5 years of Lockheed "technology transfer" Ukraine might be able to build one, assuming the brains of the Ukrainians are not rendered comatose in the process :-). Seriously, this kind of activity is difficult. I suspect even EU nations that are not at war would take a very long time to do this transfer. One big problem would be that while Ukraine has a sense of urgency, US industry will not, and that will make it slow. These big companies are very "process driven". Look how long it is taking to just refurbish these Hawk missile systems.

[Goose]

Unitary warhead ATACMS would be a pretty good weapon for taking out Kerch bridge. Storm Shadow/SCALP, a British/French cruise missile that Ukraine already fields would also be a good weapon, as would the German Taurus, not yet supplied. These have more dedicated pentration warheads as compared to ATACMS which would be useful for destroying a bridge, but may be somewhat easier for air defense to intercept as they are slower.

Probably a handful for express purpose of destroying the bridge would be good. But it does seem there are some red line escalation concerns around the bridge; Ukraine has not used any Storm Shadows/SCALP missiles for this purpose, they have only used a truck bomb and Ukrainian made naval drones. Germany has expressly said they don't want to send Taurus because they don't want it to blow up Kerch bridge. So maybe the US is also wary of supplying the weapon that destroys the bridge. Unclear.

StormShadow needs to be air-launched, and doing so from Ukrainian air space using their available MIG/SUKHOI platforms is pretty "iffy". To get the 300 mile range, you have to launch it from relatively high altitude. That makes the launch platform a sitting duck. You also need to be pointed pretty close to boresight on the target. Not impossible, but very risky. This means the missile itself at launch is also a sitting duck. It is also detected and therefore can't sneak through "under the radar".

The alternative of a low-altitude dash to reduce the range to the point you can launch it from low altitude is the best way to approach the problem. You may need HARMs to suppress some Russian air defense systems. You  may also need a CAP to protect the strike from the Russian fighter BARCAP. You may also need jamming capability to allow you to live long enough to do the job. Most of the MIGS are too short-legged and aren't designed to do this kind of mission. F-16s can do this. Too bad Ukraine doesn't have any (yet).

Could Ukraine manufacture ATACMS? Ukraine has a indigenous capabilities in this area, as seen by the Neptune cruise missiles that took out Moskva and other targets, as well as the Stugna ATGM which has been very effective, both made by the Ukrainian Luch Design Bureau. They have made agreements with Western arms manufacturers to produce and repair things insidd of Ukraine. 

Yes, and after 5 years of Lockheed "technology transfer" Ukraine might be able to build one, assuming the brains of the Ukrainians are not rendered comatose in the process :-). Seriously, this kind of activity is difficult. I suspect even EU nations that are not at war would take a very long time to do this transfer. One big problem would be that while Ukraine has a sense of urgency, US industry will not, and that will make it slow. These big companies are very "process driven". Look how long it is taking to just refurbish these Hawk missile systems.