[Mick]

What's the O/U on dead Russians, lost tanks, APCs, and artillery before Russia waves the white flag in Ukraine?

Forget Taiwan, China should be invading Russia to seize its oil and mineral assets given how depleted Russia's armed forces are. I don't think the western countries would exactly cry foul and come to Russia's aid, especially when hell is breaking loose in the Middle East.

I don't think the Russians will ever wave the white flag in Ukraine. Even if Putin ends up diving out a window, what's waiting behind him is worse, at least as near as I can tell. Russians view the Ukraine war as existential, and it's certainly existential for Putin. Until they run out of 20-50 year old Russians and all the mercenaries they can buy, they'll keep prosecuting the war. I have two concerns: first is a nuclear response motivated by a Russian version of a Tonkin Gulf incident. I could see the Russians coming up with some excuse for using a nuclear weapon or weapons. They would get obliterated by a war with NATO, and it wouldn't be close. I'd hate for them to come to the conclusion that the only acceptable outcome is mutually accepted destruction.

I don't think the Chinese, or anyone else will invade Russia as long as they have the nuclear stockpile and have clearly indicated that they view border assaults as an excuse to use those weapons.

What's worse is the ongoing cooperation between Russia and China. I think both societies are in desperate trouble, demographically speaking. They both have massive retirement-age populations with comparatively small working age populations. It's very difficult for those two societies to feed themselves, much less take on America/NATO. Even with the sanctions, Russians are doing acceptably well selling to the Chinese. But if the Chinese are hit with similar sanctions, they can't feed themselves. If Russia and China come to the conclusion that they're far better off being thugs in charges against American/NATO interests (with the support of countries like North Korea, Iran and others), then we could be in a pickle.

[Mick]

What's the O/U on dead Russians, lost tanks, APCs, and artillery before Russia waves the white flag in Ukraine?

Forget Taiwan, China should be invading Russia to seize its oil and mineral assets given how depleted Russia's armed forces are. I don't think the western countries would exactly cry foul and come to Russia's aid, especially when hell is breaking loose in the Middle East.

I don't think the Russians will ever wave the white flag in Ukraine. Even if Putin ends up diving out a window, what's waiting behind him is worse, at least as near as I can tell. Russians view the Ukraine war as existential, and it's certainly existential for Putin. Until they run out of 20-50 year old Russians and all the mercenaries they can buy, they'll keep prosecuting the war. I have two concerns: first is a nuclear response motivated by a Russian version of a Tonkin Gulf incident. I could see the Russians coming up with some excuse for using a nuclear weapon or weapons. They would get obliterated by a war with NATO, and it wouldn't be close. I'd hate for them to come to the conclusion that the only acceptable outcome is mutually accepted destruction.

I don't think the Chinese, or anyone else will invade Russia as long as they have the nuclear stockpile and have clearly indicated that they view border assaults as an excuse to use those weapons.

What's worse is the ongoing cooperation between Russia and China. I think both societies are in desperate trouble, demographically speaking. They both have massive retirement-age populations with comparatively small working age populations. It's very difficult for those two societies to feed themselves, much less take on America/NATO. Even with the sanctions, Russians are doing acceptably well selling to the Chinese. But if the Chinese are hit with similar sanctions, they can't feed themselves. If Russia and China come to the conclusion that they're far better off being thugs in charges against American/NATO interests (with the support of countries like North Korea, Iran and others), then we could be in a pickle.