[Goose]

I am with Mick and don't see Russia hoisting any "white flag" vis a vis Ukraine. To me, the general results of this "war" are already settled, and the various sides just don't know how to officially end it.

Nor do I. However,there are several possible outcomes that involve Russia leaving Ukraine because they can no longer afford to fight. One of these is that a "new" government in Russia will want to show economic benefit to the Russian people as soon as possible.  They can blame Putin for the mess, pull out of Ukraine, and renounce the "military action". That will free up lots of Russians to actually work in their economy, stop the bleeding in the military budget, and allow the lifting of Western sanctions. This outcome is a distinct possibility. While "hard liners" may want to continue/escalate the war, they may not have the money to do it. They may also not want to risk the political unrest full mobilization will require. The opposite approach has lots to recommend it.

Another very real possibility is that Russia or Ukraine collapses militarily, economically, or socially. IMO no way is this war "ended"  or "decided". Right now, Russia believes they can outlast Ukraine. They have more troops and more weapons. In the end, that will lead to Ukraine collapsing. There are reasons to believe that outcome is probable if a stalemate ensues. Ukraine knows this. They need to break the land bridge and at least pose a credible threat to Crimea. Ukraine believes that if the actually isolate Crimea and start to take it back (or, worst case. take it back), Russia will collapse. There are reasons to believe Ukraine is correct in this assessment. So, no, it isn't "decided". Both sides have a way ahead and either could prevail.

-  Russia wanted a buffer zone versus NATO
-  The US and NATO did not want Russia right up against NATO borders
-  Ukraine wants independence

So NATO bolstered Ukraine enough to get what "we" want, yet we are not willing to do everything needed to roll back Russia's current occupied territory.   So now we have stasis and tragedy until the 3 sides can figure out the right face-saving moves to end this thing for real.

IMO NATO and the US aren't capable of executing such a strategy even if they wanted to do so. At the start of the war, the West assumed Ukraine was going to quickly lose. We were going to accept that, like it or not. We had no choice. Ukraine didn't collapse, so we decided to "help". We were (and are) unwilling to start a direct war with Russia. We also have to navigate the political issues in the US and the EU. These issues were significant to start with and getting worse. Both Russia and Ukraine know this. The US can't simply "provide what is necessary" immediately and directly because neither the EU nor the US Congress would sit still for it.
Also, in any war, how does one know what is "necessary"? Ukraine is "all in". It has to be. Russia is not. They have military resources they are not using in Ukraine. The West is even less "all in". There are lots of moves that can be made by both Russia and the West. Ukraine is slowly but surely executing it's "game plan". It is anything but stasis. IMO the West would be perfectly happy if Ukraine wins outright in Crimea and Russia collapses. The West however wants to do it with as little risk to themselves as possible.

[Goose]

I am with Mick and don't see Russia hoisting any "white flag" vis a vis Ukraine. To me, the general results of this "war" are already settled, and the various sides just don't know how to officially end it.

Nor do I. However,there are several possible outcomes that involve Russia leaving Ukraine because they can no longer afford to fight. One of these is that a "new" government in Russia will want to show economic benefit to the Russian people as soon as possible.  They can blame Putin for the mess, pull out of Ukraine, and renounce the "military action". That will free up lots of Russians to actually work in their economy, stop the bleeding in the military budget, and allow the lifting of Western sanctions. This outcome is a distinct possibility. While "hard liners" may want to continue/escalate the war, they may not have the money to do it. They may also not want to risk the political unrest full mobilization will require. The opposite approach has lots to recommend it.

Another very real possibility is that Russia or Ukraine collapses militarily, economically, or socially. IMO no way is this war "ended"  or "decided". Right now, Russia believes they can outlast Ukraine. They have more troops and more weapons. In the end, that will lead to Ukraine collapsing. There are reasons to believe that outcome is probable if a stalemate ensues. Ukraine knows this. They need to break the land bridge and at least pose a credible threat to Crimea. Ukraine believes that if the actually isolate Crimea and start to take it back (or, worst case. take it back), Russia will collapse. There are reasons to believe Ukraine is correct in this assessment. So, no, it isn't "decided". Both sides have a way ahead and either could prevail.

-  Russia wanted a buffer zone versus NATO
-  The US and NATO did not want Russia right up against NATO borders
-  Ukraine wants independence

So NATO bolstered Ukraine enough to get what "we" want, yet we are not willing to do everything needed to roll back Russia's current occupied territory.   So now we have stasis and tragedy until the 3 sides can figure out the right face-saving moves to end this thing for real.

IMO NATO and the US aren't capable of executing such a strategy even if they wanted to do so. At the start of the war, the West assumed Ukraine was going to quickly lose. We were going to accept that, like it or not. We had no choice. Ukraine didn't collapse, so we decided to "help". We were (and are) unwilling to start a direct war with Russia. We also have to navigate the political issues in the US and the EU. These issues were significant to start with and getting worse. Both Russia and Ukraine know this. The US can't simply "provide what is necessary" immediately and directly because neither the EU nor the US Congress would sit still for it.
Also, in any war, how does one know what is "necessary"? Ukraine is "all in". It has to be. Russia is not. They have military resources they are not using in Ukraine. The West is even less "all in". There are lots of moves that can be made by both Russia and the West. Ukraine is slowly but surely executing it's "game plan". It is anything but stasis. IMO the West would be perfectly happy if Ukraine wins outright in Crimea and Russia collapses. The West however wants to do it with as little risk to themselves as possible.