[Goose]

Your points are well taken but sometimes one side or the other has to decide to play the cards they were dealt. Ukraine has been stymied in multiple places by the Russian mine fields and defenses in depth. 

I would argue not "stymied", but rather slowed down. Ukraine is still making progress toward Melitopol'. Russia has supposedly moved several reserve formations out of the city of Melitopol' toward the "front line" in the Tokmat area.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/25/ukraines...inter.html
This is the key strategic area, where Ukraine can really put the hurt to Russia.

So if Russian will not commit enough forces in the South to truly stop Ukraine's cross river incursions then I say for Ukraine to commit even more troops and force Russia to make a significant decision. If Ukraine commits enough forces to be at least some threat, then Russia has to pull troops from somewhere and then maybe give Ukraine a better chance elsewhere.

Ukraine knows what it is doing. So far it has used a very limited number of troops to cause Russia to react disproportionately. I am sure that if Ukraine sees a clear tactical advantage, they will react accordingly. However, it must be remembered that Ukraine has limited resources. South Kherson is open country where aviation assets can wreak havoc on moving troops. Ukraine doesn't have those assets, but Russia does. Ukraine therefore has to be careful. That is one reason the F-16 are so desired by Ukraine. It allows them to cover the forces against Russian air. Ukraine doesn't have them yet. Ukraine will commit "enough" forces as long as the effect on Russia is disproportionate. If it takes them anywhere near the assets it would take from the Russians, it isn't worth it and won't happen.

Winter always seems to be the bugaboo. Russia proved in WWII that the Winter was an opportunity when the other side  was not prepared.  The Germans were not prepared for Winter, the Russians were. The Germans attacked in the Bulge in WWII in the Winter.  Thanks to the leadership of the 82nd Airborne and Patton's abilities we extracted victory from disaster.

The weather clearing and allowing the AO to show up had a whole lot to do with it too. Patton's prayer may have been a bigger factor than Patton's tanks :-). Yes, you can fight in the winter, but the state of preparation of both sides is probably similar.

Anything Ukraine can do to force the Russians to make some significant troop movements has to be good.

Only if what Ukraine has to do to force the Russian movement requires significantly less movement by Ukraine :-). Ukraine doesn't want to dilute any of their offensives. They are going slowly enough. Taking strength away from them will cause them to stop. The problem with attacking everywhere as a strategy is that it only works if you outnumber your enemy. That is why NATO definitely didn't adopt that strategy. The problem in Ukraine is that both sides are somewhat evenly matched in numbers, with Ukraine having somewhat fewer but much better troops. Russia is betting Ukraine can't keep that up. Ukraine is going to be conservative.

[Goose]

Your points are well taken but sometimes one side or the other has to decide to play the cards they were dealt. Ukraine has been stymied in multiple places by the Russian mine fields and defenses in depth. 

I would argue not "stymied", but rather slowed down. Ukraine is still making progress toward Melitopol'. Russia has supposedly moved several reserve formations out of the city of Melitopol' toward the "front line" in the Tokmat area.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/25/ukraines...inter.html
This is the key strategic area, where Ukraine can really put the hurt to Russia.

So if Russian will not commit enough forces in the South to truly stop Ukraine's cross river incursions then I say for Ukraine to commit even more troops and force Russia to make a significant decision. If Ukraine commits enough forces to be at least some threat, then Russia has to pull troops from somewhere and then maybe give Ukraine a better chance elsewhere.

Ukraine knows what it is doing. So far it has used a very limited number of troops to cause Russia to react disproportionately. I am sure that if Ukraine sees a clear tactical advantage, they will react accordingly. However, it must be remembered that Ukraine has limited resources. South Kherson is open country where aviation assets can wreak havoc on moving troops. Ukraine doesn't have those assets, but Russia does. Ukraine therefore has to be careful. That is one reason the F-16 are so desired by Ukraine. It allows them to cover the forces against Russian air. Ukraine doesn't have them yet. Ukraine will commit "enough" forces as long as the effect on Russia is disproportionate. If it takes them anywhere near the assets it would take from the Russians, it isn't worth it and won't happen.

Winter always seems to be the bugaboo. Russia proved in WWII that the Winter was an opportunity when the other side  was not prepared.  The Germans were not prepared for Winter, the Russians were. The Germans attacked in the Bulge in WWII in the Winter.  Thanks to the leadership of the 82nd Airborne and Patton's abilities we extracted victory from disaster.

The weather clearing and allowing the AO to show up had a whole lot to do with it too. Patton's prayer may have been a bigger factor than Patton's tanks :-). Yes, you can fight in the winter, but the state of preparation of both sides is probably similar.

Anything Ukraine can do to force the Russians to make some significant troop movements has to be good.

Only if what Ukraine has to do to force the Russian movement requires significantly less movement by Ukraine :-). Ukraine doesn't want to dilute any of their offensives. They are going slowly enough. Taking strength away from them will cause them to stop. The problem with attacking everywhere as a strategy is that it only works if you outnumber your enemy. That is why NATO definitely didn't adopt that strategy. The problem in Ukraine is that both sides are somewhat evenly matched in numbers, with Ukraine having somewhat fewer but much better troops. Russia is betting Ukraine can't keep that up. Ukraine is going to be conservative.