[OutsiderFan]

For quite some time my gut has told me that changes in technology and the nature of the terrain and strategies in this conflict were producing a WWI war of attrition and stalemate.  I know to a certainty that several of you who post in this thread are far more knowledgeable about military history, strategy, tactics, leadership, weapons systems etc. than am I, and so I have always voiced my concerns tentatively and with respect to the expertise that is frequently exhibited by others on this board.

However, when I read this in the NYT this morning I could not help but have my worst fears reinforced.

With the front line in Ukraine having barely shifted despite months of fierce fighting, Ukraine’s top commander has acknowledged that his forces are locked in a “stalemate” with Russia and that no significant breakthrough was imminent, the most candid assessment so far by a leading Ukrainian official of the military’s stalled counteroffensive.

“Just like in the First World War we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate,” the commander, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, told The Economist in an interview published on Wednesday. “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.”
It was the first time a top Ukrainian commander said the fighting had reached an impasse, although General Zaluzhny added that breaking the deadlock could require technological advances to achieve air superiority and increase the effectiveness of artillery fire. He added that Russian forces, too, are incapable of advancing.

The general said modern technology and precision weapons on both sides were preventing troops from breaching enemy lines, including the expansive use of drones, and the ability to jam drones. He called for advances in electronic warfare as a way to break the deadlock.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/02/world...y-war.html

I may be Pollyanna on this stuff, but I wouldn't put it past Ukraine to plant stories that are designed to achieve certain PR objectives to help Ukraine on the battlefield. Right now, Ukraine wants two things: 

- Russia to stop sending "meat waves" of infantry that have to be killed like so many ants invading your house
- The U.S. to provide more weapons to achieve more significant breakthroughs

The "stalemate" comments can impact both.

I was watching the YouTube Ukraine Matters channel host yesterday say he initially didn't think the Dnipro river incursion was going to do much, but that he heard from some sources in UAF that now make him believe a significant push is in fact coming.

IOW, I don't know what to believe. All I know is Russians are now up to 300,000 troops and a staggering amount of vehicles, tanks, and artillery systems lost. The numbers grow every day, and eventually Russia will be worn out. The same can be said for Ukraine, but Ukraine has far more economic might to back it than Russia can conjure. It's pretty obvious China has chosen not to help Russia, so it's gonna be North Korea and maybe Iran?

[OutsiderFan]

For quite some time my gut has told me that changes in technology and the nature of the terrain and strategies in this conflict were producing a WWI war of attrition and stalemate.  I know to a certainty that several of you who post in this thread are far more knowledgeable about military history, strategy, tactics, leadership, weapons systems etc. than am I, and so I have always voiced my concerns tentatively and with respect to the expertise that is frequently exhibited by others on this board.

However, when I read this in the NYT this morning I could not help but have my worst fears reinforced.

With the front line in Ukraine having barely shifted despite months of fierce fighting, Ukraine’s top commander has acknowledged that his forces are locked in a “stalemate” with Russia and that no significant breakthrough was imminent, the most candid assessment so far by a leading Ukrainian official of the military’s stalled counteroffensive.

“Just like in the First World War we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate,” the commander, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, told The Economist in an interview published on Wednesday. “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.”
It was the first time a top Ukrainian commander said the fighting had reached an impasse, although General Zaluzhny added that breaking the deadlock could require technological advances to achieve air superiority and increase the effectiveness of artillery fire. He added that Russian forces, too, are incapable of advancing.

The general said modern technology and precision weapons on both sides were preventing troops from breaching enemy lines, including the expansive use of drones, and the ability to jam drones. He called for advances in electronic warfare as a way to break the deadlock.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/02/world...y-war.html

I may be Pollyanna on this stuff, but I wouldn't put it past Ukraine to plant stories that are designed to achieve certain PR objectives to help Ukraine on the battlefield. Right now, Ukraine wants two things: 

- Russia to stop sending "meat waves" of infantry that have to be killed like so many ants invading your house
- The U.S. to provide more weapons to achieve more significant breakthroughs

The "stalemate" comments can impact both.

I was watching the YouTube Ukraine Matters channel host yesterday say he initially didn't think the Dnipro river incursion was going to do much, but that he heard from some sources in UAF that now make him believe a significant push is in fact coming.

IOW, I don't know what to believe. All I know is Russians are now up to 300,000 troops and a staggering amount of vehicles, tanks, and artillery systems lost. The numbers grow every day, and eventually Russia will be worn out. The same can be said for Ukraine, but Ukraine has far more economic might to back it than Russia can conjure. It's pretty obvious China has chosen not to help Russia, so it's gonna be North Korea and maybe Iran?