OutsiderFan dateline='[url=tel:1701184540' Wrote: 1701184540[/url]']
I understand the fools at CBS decided it was a good idea to show Chiefs - Raiders instead of Bills - Eagles to the Bay Area market on Sunday, so most local Niners fans didn't see how absurdly lucky the Eagles were to beat the Bills. Those who saw their MNF win at Chiefs know they also were very fortunate to win that game, but the Bills game good fortune was what I would call statistically like winning Powerball. This isn't to say the Eagles just all have rabbit's fee shoved up their collective asses, they are good too, good fortune has a way of evening out in sports.
Here's a summary of the things that went right for the Eagles and against Bills that the Eagles had no hand in making happen or were chance events that rolled their way:
- Bills RB dropped pass that would have been an easy walk-in TD had he caught it (game winning points)
- Bills called for 10 first half penalties to Eagles 1 - and the Eagles got away with several
- Blocked chip shot FG - give credit to Eagles, but that is more chance event than some great level of skill of a FG block unit
- Missed Bills 48 yd FG in heavy rain (game winning points)
- Eagles made 59 yd FG to force OT when the rain intensity had lowered
- Bills WR turned wrong way on would have been game winning TD; Jim Nance called it like it was gonna be caught for game winner he was so open
- AJ Brown stripped of ball after Bills OT FG; overzealous ref ruled incomplete on field, preventing review of a clear Bills fumble recovery from happening that would have given them the win or been overturned if ruled incomplete, and if th ball was knocked out a millisecond later, it is ruled a fumble and Bills recovery anyway
The Bills totally dominated the first half and should have led 27-7. Instead, it was just 17-7. The Eagles played well in the second half, but the Bills were not terrible in the second like the Eagles were in the first. The Bills were the better team overall and should have won the game. I've never seen a game where the winning team had more things go their way. I was rooting for the Bills because Niners need Eagles to lose for any bye chance, and was frustrated, but can't imagine how crazy the Bills fans were going watching it all play out.
I'm not a big refs decided the game guy, and you'll notice none of the events above are specific penalty situations, but, this is pretty remarkable. The missed horse collar tackle on Allen was just breathtaking, especially when they not only missed that, but called him for intentional grounding! This is the drive the Bills had FG blocked. The Bills scored a TD after Eagles fumbled on last first half possession, so it wasn't a game-deciding penalty, but it indicated how the Bills were being victimized by poor refereeing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iS35GziYIEk
Anyway, I think part of the reason the Niners are favored, aside from having a more dominant team, is people expect the crazy Eagles good fortune at all crucial moments to run out, and it should.
Eagles are 10-1 playing at home. Niners sometimes struggle with running QBs. Hassan Redick on McKivitz is a bad matchup. Forecast is 55 and showers (not bad). Eagles have no 1 rushing defense in NFL. (28th passing). Smith and Brown are the best set of wideouts Niners will see.
Yes, Eagles have been fortunate. They’ve also beaten Dolphins, Cowboys, Chiefs and Bills in 4 of last 5 weeks. No matter how that’s achieved, it’s darn impressive. Those are 4 of top 6 in football.
Niners certainly can win this game. I think on a neutral field they may be a bit better. In Philly? Still surprised they are favored. Kind of sorry they are.
To get to SB Niners probably will have to beat Philly twice. In Philly.
Tall task.