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Anyway, I think part of the reason the Niners are favored, aside from having a more dominant team, is people expect the crazy Eagles good fortune at all crucial moments to run out, and it should.

I agree that the Eagles have experienced "crazy good fortune", perhaps even historical good fortune.  Ed Werder tweeted out that the Bills had 500+ yards on offense (505), 10+ 3rd down conversions (13), and a positive turnover margin (+1).  Since the 1970 merger, 40 teams have accomplished this, and the Bills are the first of those 40 to lose.

But it's hard to figure how much is good fortune and how much is talent and tenacity.  The Eagles now have 8 consecutive wins in games where they have trailed by 10 or more points.  In 5 of their wins this season (including the last 4), they have trailed at halftime.  And Jalen Hurts has 14 consecutive wins over teams with winning records - the longest such streak since 1950.

I think that the 49ers are better than the Eagles, but a team with a with a record and culture of overcoming adversity can be difficult to put away.  Should be fun to watch.

[skip75]

Anyway, I think part of the reason the Niners are favored, aside from having a more dominant team, is people expect the crazy Eagles good fortune at all crucial moments to run out, and it should.

I agree that the Eagles have experienced "crazy good fortune", perhaps even historical good fortune.  Ed Werder tweeted out that the Bills had 500+ yards on offense (505), 10+ 3rd down conversions (13), and a positive turnover margin (+1).  Since the 1970 merger, 40 teams have accomplished this, and the Bills are the first of those 40 to lose.

But it's hard to figure how much is good fortune and how much is talent and tenacity.  The Eagles now have 8 consecutive wins in games where they have trailed by 10 or more points.  In 5 of their wins this season (including the last 4), they have trailed at halftime.  And Jalen Hurts has 14 consecutive wins over teams with winning records - the longest such streak since 1950.

I think that the 49ers are better than the Eagles, but a team with a with a record and culture of overcoming adversity can be difficult to put away.  Should be fun to watch.