[TrumpCard]

The telling event is that while Ukraine drove the Russians back around Kherson city, they allowed the Russians to retain that city for MONTHS. The Russians then retreated in relatively good order. That should never have been allowed. Ukraine apparently just didn't have the combat power to prevent it. After that, the Ukrainians allowed the Russians to build the Surovikin Line. Probably the Ukraine didn't have the combat power to prevent that either, but it does seem Ukraine under-estimated how much of a problem it would cause them.

Goose, this part of your response suggests that Ukraine simply lacks the combat power to push Russian troops off of a well-fortified position.  The battle lines in the south of Ukraine are nothing if not well-fortified, so this seems ominous.  I don't think Ukraine can say that it lacks decent equipment anymore either since Ukraine now has a decent amount of tanks, de-mining equipment, APCs, ATACMS, Patriots, etc.  This leads me to some questions:

Have the deliveries of equipment and munitions from the West been so small in number as to prevent the Ukrainians from showing proof of concept on putting together a strike force?  

Is there a view that further training on the equipment the West is shipping will fundamentally alter Ukraine's ability to dislodge Russian troops from well-fortified positions?  

If these aren't the key, then the only remaining piece of the puzzle is the fighter jets.  Will the modest number of jets that the West has committed be enough to change anything or will they simply replace the Soviet era jets that the Russians have been trying to shoot down for the last 2 years?

I previously held the view that this war is "stalemated," and that Russia would settle for making this another one of its "frozen conflicts," but it sounds like you think that's a temporary equilibrium that will change as Ukraine's economy continues to falter and as Russia re-generates its forces.  I don't have enough information to provide a counterbalance to your ominous outlook, but I remain hopeful that Ukraine will muster the strength to continue its defense and that the West will be able to stay sufficiently united to fund and supply that effort.

[TrumpCard]

The telling event is that while Ukraine drove the Russians back around Kherson city, they allowed the Russians to retain that city for MONTHS. The Russians then retreated in relatively good order. That should never have been allowed. Ukraine apparently just didn't have the combat power to prevent it. After that, the Ukrainians allowed the Russians to build the Surovikin Line. Probably the Ukraine didn't have the combat power to prevent that either, but it does seem Ukraine under-estimated how much of a problem it would cause them.

Goose, this part of your response suggests that Ukraine simply lacks the combat power to push Russian troops off of a well-fortified position.  The battle lines in the south of Ukraine are nothing if not well-fortified, so this seems ominous.  I don't think Ukraine can say that it lacks decent equipment anymore either since Ukraine now has a decent amount of tanks, de-mining equipment, APCs, ATACMS, Patriots, etc.  This leads me to some questions:

Have the deliveries of equipment and munitions from the West been so small in number as to prevent the Ukrainians from showing proof of concept on putting together a strike force?  

Is there a view that further training on the equipment the West is shipping will fundamentally alter Ukraine's ability to dislodge Russian troops from well-fortified positions?  

If these aren't the key, then the only remaining piece of the puzzle is the fighter jets.  Will the modest number of jets that the West has committed be enough to change anything or will they simply replace the Soviet era jets that the Russians have been trying to shoot down for the last 2 years?

I previously held the view that this war is "stalemated," and that Russia would settle for making this another one of its "frozen conflicts," but it sounds like you think that's a temporary equilibrium that will change as Ukraine's economy continues to falter and as Russia re-generates its forces.  I don't have enough information to provide a counterbalance to your ominous outlook, but I remain hopeful that Ukraine will muster the strength to continue its defense and that the West will be able to stay sufficiently united to fund and supply that effort.