01-14-2024, 07:21 PM
https://www.yahoo.com/news/media-ukraine...08185.html
If this is true, it dwarfs any discussion about Bradleys vs T-90s :). It would IMO undoubtedly been a Patriot, because Ukraine's S-300 systems (if they have any left) probably are all deployed as point defense systems. The IL-22M being shot down as well is also a "big deal". The real question is why the A-50 didn't detect the Patriot search radar and then later the illuminator. It also should have detected the missile itself. Either way, a dive to the deck should have preserved it. That didn't happen. If Ukraine can keep the A-50s out of the area, Russia and Ukraine will remain equally blind to what is going on "over the horizon". That will allow F-16s to fly to their intended targets largely undetected (if they stay low until the "last minute"). The A-50 can take away that advantage, so killing them helps a lot.
The IL-22M could have been doing ELINT or command and control operations. Either way, taking one down probably killed lots of "valuable" personnel, at a minimum. Russia undoubtedly needs info on the Ukrainian EORBAT. An ELINT IL-22 can provide that. Unfortunately, Ukraine does not have an equivalent capability. Denying it to Russia is an important equalizer.
Of course, we don't yet have "official" confirmation of this success, and therefore can't celebrate too much :-).
If this is true, it dwarfs any discussion about Bradleys vs T-90s :). It would IMO undoubtedly been a Patriot, because Ukraine's S-300 systems (if they have any left) probably are all deployed as point defense systems. The IL-22M being shot down as well is also a "big deal". The real question is why the A-50 didn't detect the Patriot search radar and then later the illuminator. It also should have detected the missile itself. Either way, a dive to the deck should have preserved it. That didn't happen. If Ukraine can keep the A-50s out of the area, Russia and Ukraine will remain equally blind to what is going on "over the horizon". That will allow F-16s to fly to their intended targets largely undetected (if they stay low until the "last minute"). The A-50 can take away that advantage, so killing them helps a lot.
The IL-22M could have been doing ELINT or command and control operations. Either way, taking one down probably killed lots of "valuable" personnel, at a minimum. Russia undoubtedly needs info on the Ukrainian EORBAT. An ELINT IL-22 can provide that. Unfortunately, Ukraine does not have an equivalent capability. Denying it to Russia is an important equalizer.
Of course, we don't yet have "official" confirmation of this success, and therefore can't celebrate too much :-).