[lex24]

JD Davis won his arbitration hearing today. He'll get paid $6.9 million instead of the club's proposed $6.55 million. That puts the Giants payroll at an even $200 million, $37 million short of the luxury tax level...enough to pay for another high level free agent or two.

Payroll is around $155,000,000.  EST luxury tax payroll just under 200,000,000.  That is  according to FanGraphs.  Sportrac has the estimated luxury tax figure (which is the more important figure) significantly lower.

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I’d be more inclined to be interested if I didn’t see him consistently swinging at offspeed stuff in the dirt. The hit tool has always been his question. I was encouraged in that he appears capable of handling and turning on a fastball in. If he can become just a tad more patient – not, everybody has to be Lamont Wade – and learn the strike zone, a bit better, he might be a decent major league hitter. Otherwise, he’s going to go the way that so many have before him. Destroyed by the breaking ball

Brandon Belt was like that for the longest time, and he figured it out -- eventually. Speaking of which, he's still a free agent and hit 19 HRs in 334 ABs last year...although he would have only projected to 14 HRs at Oracle, per baseball savant.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-pl...itting-mlb

BTW, Belt's profile is what makes me suspicious of Bellinger, who had a good season in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field. Per baseball savant, from 2016 to 2023, Belt would have had almost twice as many home runs at Wrigley as he did at Oracle (206 vs. 108).

Belt always has had a terrific eye. Rarely chases pitches out of the zone. That’s been true since day one.  

Bellinger – his home and road splits last year were almost identical. Oracle will cost him some HR’s.  But it shouldn’t hurt the rest of his production. 

He’s a tough one. Because his “hard hit rate“ was not particularly thrilling. But at the same time he cut his strikeouts about in half. Also, he’s a terrific athlete. A very good defensive player, both at first base and in the outfield and he’s fast.

 The question I’d ask myself if I’m thinking of signing Bellinger is whether I see 2023 as his new ceiling: or a recovery year.

[lex24]

JD Davis won his arbitration hearing today. He'll get paid $6.9 million instead of the club's proposed $6.55 million. That puts the Giants payroll at an even $200 million, $37 million short of the luxury tax level...enough to pay for another high level free agent or two.

Payroll is around $155,000,000.  EST luxury tax payroll just under 200,000,000.  That is  according to FanGraphs.  Sportrac has the estimated luxury tax figure (which is the more important figure) significantly lower.

---

I’d be more inclined to be interested if I didn’t see him consistently swinging at offspeed stuff in the dirt. The hit tool has always been his question. I was encouraged in that he appears capable of handling and turning on a fastball in. If he can become just a tad more patient – not, everybody has to be Lamont Wade – and learn the strike zone, a bit better, he might be a decent major league hitter. Otherwise, he’s going to go the way that so many have before him. Destroyed by the breaking ball

Brandon Belt was like that for the longest time, and he figured it out -- eventually. Speaking of which, he's still a free agent and hit 19 HRs in 334 ABs last year...although he would have only projected to 14 HRs at Oracle, per baseball savant.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-pl...itting-mlb

BTW, Belt's profile is what makes me suspicious of Bellinger, who had a good season in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field. Per baseball savant, from 2016 to 2023, Belt would have had almost twice as many home runs at Wrigley as he did at Oracle (206 vs. 108).

Belt always has had a terrific eye. Rarely chases pitches out of the zone. That’s been true since day one.  

Bellinger – his home and road splits last year were almost identical. Oracle will cost him some HR’s.  But it shouldn’t hurt the rest of his production. 

He’s a tough one. Because his “hard hit rate“ was not particularly thrilling. But at the same time he cut his strikeouts about in half. Also, he’s a terrific athlete. A very good defensive player, both at first base and in the outfield and he’s fast.

 The question I’d ask myself if I’m thinking of signing Bellinger is whether I see 2023 as his new ceiling: or a recovery year.