[lex24]

1707453014[/url]']

1707441781[/url]']

1707432533[/url]']
JD Davis won his arbitration hearing today. He'll get paid $6.9 million instead of the club's proposed $6.55 million. That puts the Giants payroll at an even $200 million, $37 million short of the luxury tax level...enough to pay for another high level free agent or two.

Payroll is around $155,000,000.  EST luxury tax payroll just under 200,000,000.  That is  according to FanGraphs.  Sportrac has  the estimated luxury tax figure (which is the more important figure) significantly lower.

---

1707424036[/url]']

1707409605[/url]']
I’d be more inclined to be interested if I didn’t see him consistently swinging at offspeed stuff in the dirt. The hit tool has always been his question. I was encouraged in that he appears capable of handling and turning on a fastball in. If he can become just a tad more patient – not, everybody has to be Lamont Wade – and learn the strike zone, a bit better, he might be a decent major league hitter. Otherwise, he’s going to go the way that so many have before him. Destroyed by the breaking ball

Brandon Belt was like that for the longest time, and he figured it out -- eventually. Speaking of which, he's still a free agent and hit 19 HRs in 334 ABs last year...although he would have only projected to 14 HRs at Oracle, per baseball savant.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-pl...itting-mlb

BTW, Belt's profile is what makes me suspicious of Bellinger, who had a good season in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field. Per baseball savant, from 2016 to 2023, Belt would have had almost twice as many home runs at Wrigley as he did at Oracle (206 vs. 108).

Belt always has had a terrific eye. Rarely chases pitches out of the zone. That’s been true since day one.  

Bellinger – his home and road splits last year were almost identical. Oracle will cost him some HR’s.  But it shouldn’t hurt the rest of his production. 

He’s a tough one. Because his “hard hit rate“ was not particularly thrilling. But at the same time he cut his strikeouts about in half. Also, he’s a terrific athlete. A very good defensive player, both at first base and in the outfield and he’s fast.

 The question I’d ask myself if I’m thinking of signing Bellinger is whether I see  2023 as his new ceiling:  or a recovery year.

Who knows. Baseball Savant thinks Oracle would cost Bellinger nearly half of his home runs, at least based on his 2016-2023 production
Cody Bellinger Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)

I’ve always wondered how  Savant goes about determining the number of home runs one would’ve hit elsewhere. Wrigley is a great example. Did it analyze every single fly ball that Belt  hit at Oracle factoring in  weather and  then take a look at each one of those assuming he was playing at Wrigley – again taking into account weather conditions. (As you know, Wrigley is essentially two ballparks – a hitters paradise when the wind is blowing out in a damn good place to pitch when the wind is blowing in)

I always also found Belt  an interesting study. Here are his lifetime, splits (and last year was  in line with these, so the home numbers reflect Oracle) 

Home: .272/.370/468/829
Road. .250/.345/453/797

I find it particularly interesting that he had a higher slugging percentage at home despite the fact that he had 72 homers at Oracle and 103 on the road. Just let’s you know he had more extra base hits at Oracle. Which makes sense given the expanse of the OF.

if I’m the Giants, courting  Bellinger, I use those. Bellinger is a power hitter. But he’s also a guy with tremendous speed that can hit for a high average. Oracle will take Home Runs away from him,  but it may also give him more doubles and triples. It’s also an attractive outfield to play defensively. Whether it’s  in right field or centerfield.

 I get tired of the moaning about how hard it is to hit at Oracle  It is definitely more of a pitchers park.  But it’s not Death Valley. Indeed go back and look at the teams in the early 2000s when the Giants actually had a bunch of good hitters. Those teams didn’t seem to have much of a problem.

 The Giants need an infusion of Roger Craig. Who famously when he took over over in 1985 essentially told the players to stop bitching about Candlestick and instead use the park to their advantage. 

Oracle is a great place to play baseball. It’s a beautiful park. It’s a little bit of a quirky park for the outfielders. It’s a good place to pitch. 

Giants won three titles there. They did it with great pitching, good defense, and solid and timely hitting. In fact, if I’m not mistaken, in  the second half of the 2010 season, the Giants were at or near the top of the National League in Home Runs.  And of course, they were also at the top in 2021. 

 Time for the organization to stop using it as excuse for not being able to bring in hitters.
If they have to pay a little little bit of a premium, so be it. Shouldn’t have to do that for pitchers, they should be lining up.

You want a hard sell for a ballpark – join the Colorado organization. Coors is famously a great place to hit. It also drains a team over the course of the year and there is the “Coors effect“ when they go on the road. A very interesting phenomenon where they struggle to hit particularly in the first series away from home. it also hits  teams that come into Coors  for a series. They tend to struggle their first game or two after.  The reason – in Coors pitches simply don’t move anywhere near as much in the altitude. So, they go on the road and that slider has a bit more snap the sinker a bit more sink, etc. takes a while to adjust.  Plus, the altitude adds to fatigue.

The real reason, imo, the Giants struggle to sign Free agents at this point is simple – there’s a behemoth 450 miles south. Players essentially know they’ve got no chance to challenge for the division. My biggest criticism of Zaidi and the organization in general is that they screwed the pooch after the 2021 season. That was a time to add on, to build. Kevin Gausman wanted to pitch for the Giants. Loved the organization. Yet they didn’t make him anything close to a competitive offer. Because Zaidi is afraid of five or six year contracts for pitchers nearing their 30s.  Thus, he passed. I heard him interviewed on this recently. He took some “blame“. But he also said that the organization was being conservative financially, because ‘20 and ‘21 had been tough with the pandemic and then the limited crowds in ‘21. Shortsighted to say the least. 

This winter so far has been very Zaidi like. He’s made two clever deal, getting rid of Haniger and DeSclafani and grabbing Robbie Ray and Hicks.   Both relatively low risk moves with some potential reward. One for a guy coming off an injury (Giants love guys coming off injuries) another for someone who has essentially under achieved most his major league career. 

Singing Lee was a little bit of a step outside the line. There is some risk there. He’s highly regarded – he’s also played at essentially a AA level. And the Giants have committed a lot of money.

I’ve read that February 14 is kind of the date to circle. Not just because it’s Valentine’s Day and you need to make certain you have something for your sweetheart,  but because that’s the day teams can put people on the 60 man IL. Giants will move Ray and perhaps Cobb opening up two spots on the 40 Man roster. Other teams will be doing the same thing.

Bellinger, Chapman, Montgomery, Snell. Those are the four big pieces left on the board. Personally, I don’t want Snell. He can go pitch five and 1/3/innings elsewhere.  if the Giants could grab either  Bellinger or Chapman and Montgomery, it would, in my opinion, turn this winter into a highly successful one. If they don’t sign any of those four it’s  a failure. Unless they have some magic trade up their sleeve. And if they do that they’re gonna lose pitching prospects.

Oh, they also need a shortstop. To go into the season with Luciano as their shortstop and either Schmitt or Fitzgerald as the only back up is organizational negligence .  Tim Anderson was one of the worst players in baseball.  But if you go back a couple years, he was a premium shortstop. Low risk, potentially solid reward shouldn’t cost a whole lot. A Zaidi special.

[lex24]

1707453014[/url]']

1707441781[/url]']

1707432533[/url]']
JD Davis won his arbitration hearing today. He'll get paid $6.9 million instead of the club's proposed $6.55 million. That puts the Giants payroll at an even $200 million, $37 million short of the luxury tax level...enough to pay for another high level free agent or two.

Payroll is around $155,000,000.  EST luxury tax payroll just under 200,000,000.  That is  according to FanGraphs.  Sportrac has  the estimated luxury tax figure (which is the more important figure) significantly lower.

---

1707424036[/url]']

1707409605[/url]']
I’d be more inclined to be interested if I didn’t see him consistently swinging at offspeed stuff in the dirt. The hit tool has always been his question. I was encouraged in that he appears capable of handling and turning on a fastball in. If he can become just a tad more patient – not, everybody has to be Lamont Wade – and learn the strike zone, a bit better, he might be a decent major league hitter. Otherwise, he’s going to go the way that so many have before him. Destroyed by the breaking ball

Brandon Belt was like that for the longest time, and he figured it out -- eventually. Speaking of which, he's still a free agent and hit 19 HRs in 334 ABs last year...although he would have only projected to 14 HRs at Oracle, per baseball savant.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-pl...itting-mlb

BTW, Belt's profile is what makes me suspicious of Bellinger, who had a good season in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field. Per baseball savant, from 2016 to 2023, Belt would have had almost twice as many home runs at Wrigley as he did at Oracle (206 vs. 108).

Belt always has had a terrific eye. Rarely chases pitches out of the zone. That’s been true since day one.  

Bellinger – his home and road splits last year were almost identical. Oracle will cost him some HR’s.  But it shouldn’t hurt the rest of his production. 

He’s a tough one. Because his “hard hit rate“ was not particularly thrilling. But at the same time he cut his strikeouts about in half. Also, he’s a terrific athlete. A very good defensive player, both at first base and in the outfield and he’s fast.

 The question I’d ask myself if I’m thinking of signing Bellinger is whether I see  2023 as his new ceiling:  or a recovery year.

Who knows. Baseball Savant thinks Oracle would cost Bellinger nearly half of his home runs, at least based on his 2016-2023 production
Cody Bellinger Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)

I’ve always wondered how  Savant goes about determining the number of home runs one would’ve hit elsewhere. Wrigley is a great example. Did it analyze every single fly ball that Belt  hit at Oracle factoring in  weather and  then take a look at each one of those assuming he was playing at Wrigley – again taking into account weather conditions. (As you know, Wrigley is essentially two ballparks – a hitters paradise when the wind is blowing out in a damn good place to pitch when the wind is blowing in)

I always also found Belt  an interesting study. Here are his lifetime, splits (and last year was  in line with these, so the home numbers reflect Oracle) 

Home: .272/.370/468/829
Road. .250/.345/453/797

I find it particularly interesting that he had a higher slugging percentage at home despite the fact that he had 72 homers at Oracle and 103 on the road. Just let’s you know he had more extra base hits at Oracle. Which makes sense given the expanse of the OF.

if I’m the Giants, courting  Bellinger, I use those. Bellinger is a power hitter. But he’s also a guy with tremendous speed that can hit for a high average. Oracle will take Home Runs away from him,  but it may also give him more doubles and triples. It’s also an attractive outfield to play defensively. Whether it’s  in right field or centerfield.

 I get tired of the moaning about how hard it is to hit at Oracle  It is definitely more of a pitchers park.  But it’s not Death Valley. Indeed go back and look at the teams in the early 2000s when the Giants actually had a bunch of good hitters. Those teams didn’t seem to have much of a problem.

 The Giants need an infusion of Roger Craig. Who famously when he took over over in 1985 essentially told the players to stop bitching about Candlestick and instead use the park to their advantage. 

Oracle is a great place to play baseball. It’s a beautiful park. It’s a little bit of a quirky park for the outfielders. It’s a good place to pitch. 

Giants won three titles there. They did it with great pitching, good defense, and solid and timely hitting. In fact, if I’m not mistaken, in  the second half of the 2010 season, the Giants were at or near the top of the National League in Home Runs.  And of course, they were also at the top in 2021. 

 Time for the organization to stop using it as excuse for not being able to bring in hitters.
If they have to pay a little little bit of a premium, so be it. Shouldn’t have to do that for pitchers, they should be lining up.

You want a hard sell for a ballpark – join the Colorado organization. Coors is famously a great place to hit. It also drains a team over the course of the year and there is the “Coors effect“ when they go on the road. A very interesting phenomenon where they struggle to hit particularly in the first series away from home. it also hits  teams that come into Coors  for a series. They tend to struggle their first game or two after.  The reason – in Coors pitches simply don’t move anywhere near as much in the altitude. So, they go on the road and that slider has a bit more snap the sinker a bit more sink, etc. takes a while to adjust.  Plus, the altitude adds to fatigue.

The real reason, imo, the Giants struggle to sign Free agents at this point is simple – there’s a behemoth 450 miles south. Players essentially know they’ve got no chance to challenge for the division. My biggest criticism of Zaidi and the organization in general is that they screwed the pooch after the 2021 season. That was a time to add on, to build. Kevin Gausman wanted to pitch for the Giants. Loved the organization. Yet they didn’t make him anything close to a competitive offer. Because Zaidi is afraid of five or six year contracts for pitchers nearing their 30s.  Thus, he passed. I heard him interviewed on this recently. He took some “blame“. But he also said that the organization was being conservative financially, because ‘20 and ‘21 had been tough with the pandemic and then the limited crowds in ‘21. Shortsighted to say the least. 

This winter so far has been very Zaidi like. He’s made two clever deal, getting rid of Haniger and DeSclafani and grabbing Robbie Ray and Hicks.   Both relatively low risk moves with some potential reward. One for a guy coming off an injury (Giants love guys coming off injuries) another for someone who has essentially under achieved most his major league career. 

Singing Lee was a little bit of a step outside the line. There is some risk there. He’s highly regarded – he’s also played at essentially a AA level. And the Giants have committed a lot of money.

I’ve read that February 14 is kind of the date to circle. Not just because it’s Valentine’s Day and you need to make certain you have something for your sweetheart,  but because that’s the day teams can put people on the 60 man IL. Giants will move Ray and perhaps Cobb opening up two spots on the 40 Man roster. Other teams will be doing the same thing.

Bellinger, Chapman, Montgomery, Snell. Those are the four big pieces left on the board. Personally, I don’t want Snell. He can go pitch five and 1/3/innings elsewhere.  if the Giants could grab either  Bellinger or Chapman and Montgomery, it would, in my opinion, turn this winter into a highly successful one. If they don’t sign any of those four it’s  a failure. Unless they have some magic trade up their sleeve. And if they do that they’re gonna lose pitching prospects.

Oh, they also need a shortstop. To go into the season with Luciano as their shortstop and either Schmitt or Fitzgerald as the only back up is organizational negligence .  Tim Anderson was one of the worst players in baseball.  But if you go back a couple years, he was a premium shortstop. Low risk, potentially solid reward shouldn’t cost a whole lot. A Zaidi special.