[Goose]

Also unclear how much defensive depth Ukraine has. Fortunately Russia's mechanized forces have been so degraded they probably can't really take full advantage of the situation.

Probably true. Russia hasn't demonstrated much ability to move fast.

This largely has developed because of artillery ammunition shortages. US aid needs to get restarted now or this will just be the start of a slow motion collapse.

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1758638627545063926?s=20

Exactly so, except for the last part. The slow collapse can become a fast collapse if the troops lose confidence in their leadership or see no way to ever win. The lack of US aid is undoubtedly demoralizing. They had friends die to hold the position, but now that has been made meaningless by lack of ammo. It doesn't get much worse than that.

[Goose]

Also unclear how much defensive depth Ukraine has. Fortunately Russia's mechanized forces have been so degraded they probably can't really take full advantage of the situation.

Probably true. Russia hasn't demonstrated much ability to move fast.

This largely has developed because of artillery ammunition shortages. US aid needs to get restarted now or this will just be the start of a slow motion collapse.

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1758638627545063926?s=20

Exactly so, except for the last part. The slow collapse can become a fast collapse if the troops lose confidence in their leadership or see no way to ever win. The lack of US aid is undoubtedly demoralizing. They had friends die to hold the position, but now that has been made meaningless by lack of ammo. It doesn't get much worse than that.