[GK3]

Also unclear how much defensive depth Ukraine has. Fortunately Russia's mechanized forces have been so degraded they probably can't really take full advantage of the situation.

Probably true. Russia hasn't demonstrated much ability to move fast.

This largely has developed because of artillery ammunition shortages. US aid needs to get restarted now or this will just be the start of a slow motion collapse.

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1758638627545063926?s=20

Exactly so, except for the last part. The slow collapse can become a fast collapse if the troops lose confidence in their leadership or see no way to ever win. The lack of US aid is undoubtedly demoralizing. They had friends die to hold the position, but now that has been made meaningless by lack of ammo. It doesn't get much worse than that.

You could not be more correct!!

---

I know the EU was delayed with its Ukraine funding package as well, but the 50 billion Euro package has since been approved.  Do you all know whether those funds and supplies actually have started flowing into Ukraine?  If so, that may buy a bit of time though obviously Ukraine needs all the aid it can get asap.

The problem is that it is economic aid. Converting it to hardware requires a contractor that can deliver. There are none.

ADDITION:
From https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ne...t-the-war/

Today’s EU package provides Ukraine with money it needs to continue, but to defend itself and protect its people it also needs materiel, which the agreement does not provide.

This all makes Estonian's Prime Ministers statements perhaps more meaningful.  We can have all the good intentions, but if you don't have the means to put those intentions in force, you are sort of whistling in the wind. Seems to me that the Ukraine - Russian conflict has illustrated one big problem for the West.  The war has burned through munitions of all kinds at a staggering rate.  The Russians seem to never throw anything away and are wheeling out 30 year old tanks, which seems stupid, but if the other side has no useful tanks, it is not so dumb after all.  The situation seems to illustrate that it is best that stockpiles be rebuilt in much larger quantities that in the past. 
He who runs out of ammunition first loses.

[GK3]

Also unclear how much defensive depth Ukraine has. Fortunately Russia's mechanized forces have been so degraded they probably can't really take full advantage of the situation.

Probably true. Russia hasn't demonstrated much ability to move fast.

This largely has developed because of artillery ammunition shortages. US aid needs to get restarted now or this will just be the start of a slow motion collapse.

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1758638627545063926?s=20

Exactly so, except for the last part. The slow collapse can become a fast collapse if the troops lose confidence in their leadership or see no way to ever win. The lack of US aid is undoubtedly demoralizing. They had friends die to hold the position, but now that has been made meaningless by lack of ammo. It doesn't get much worse than that.

You could not be more correct!!

---

I know the EU was delayed with its Ukraine funding package as well, but the 50 billion Euro package has since been approved.  Do you all know whether those funds and supplies actually have started flowing into Ukraine?  If so, that may buy a bit of time though obviously Ukraine needs all the aid it can get asap.

The problem is that it is economic aid. Converting it to hardware requires a contractor that can deliver. There are none.

ADDITION:
From https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ne...t-the-war/

Today’s EU package provides Ukraine with money it needs to continue, but to defend itself and protect its people it also needs materiel, which the agreement does not provide.

This all makes Estonian's Prime Ministers statements perhaps more meaningful.  We can have all the good intentions, but if you don't have the means to put those intentions in force, you are sort of whistling in the wind. Seems to me that the Ukraine - Russian conflict has illustrated one big problem for the West.  The war has burned through munitions of all kinds at a staggering rate.  The Russians seem to never throw anything away and are wheeling out 30 year old tanks, which seems stupid, but if the other side has no useful tanks, it is not so dumb after all.  The situation seems to illustrate that it is best that stockpiles be rebuilt in much larger quantities that in the past. 
He who runs out of ammunition first loses.