[dabigv13]

I think an end state with Russia in control of Crimea and Ukraine in control of the majority of their present held territory is still the likeliest outcome, with fighting probably for at least a few more years.

Ukraine won't have the manpower or material for another offensive for a while, maybe a year. They need to expand their draft but that will take time. Russia similarly does not have any near term capacity for a decisive offensive.

The Ukrainian drone attacks against Russian refineries have definitely been increasing in their frequency and effect. It won't end the war anytime soon but if Ukraine can maintain this sort of tempo in their long range operations, in a year or two the Black Sea Fleet may be completely sunk and Russian refining capacity severely hamstrung. If Russia is still unable to sustain an offensive at that point Putin may finally decide the juice is not worth the squeeze.

[dabigv13]

I think an end state with Russia in control of Crimea and Ukraine in control of the majority of their present held territory is still the likeliest outcome, with fighting probably for at least a few more years.

Ukraine won't have the manpower or material for another offensive for a while, maybe a year. They need to expand their draft but that will take time. Russia similarly does not have any near term capacity for a decisive offensive.

The Ukrainian drone attacks against Russian refineries have definitely been increasing in their frequency and effect. It won't end the war anytime soon but if Ukraine can maintain this sort of tempo in their long range operations, in a year or two the Black Sea Fleet may be completely sunk and Russian refining capacity severely hamstrung. If Russia is still unable to sustain an offensive at that point Putin may finally decide the juice is not worth the squeeze.