[Goose]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russias-adapt...52996.html

Interesting article. While I fully share the frustration with the fact the F-16s were not available in 2023 to support the Ukrainian offensives in the south that doesn't mean F-16s will be "useless" in 2024. As the article correctly points out, the Russians have been gifted with at least a year of warning. As stated, the Russians learn. The slowness of US/NATO initiatives has indeed allowed Russia to correct/mitigate deficiencies in their forces before the "new" Ukrainian capabilities can be decisive. The west can't move at "the speed of war", and that is in the process of defeating Ukraine.

The idea the Russians are firing "ranging" shots is undoubtedly incorrect. Russia knows full well how far their missiles go, both with and without warheads. IMO what the probably are doing is characterizing the range of their control of the missiles. This is necessary because Russia must finally come to grips with the fact the very long range of their SAMs is useless if the tracking radar can't see the targets or the missile can't "hear" the command guidance. If you are shooting at targets that operate at high altitudes and on reasonably predictable courses that isn't a big problem because the radar horizon and path loss are well known. However if you want to target a low-flying maneuvering target you have to be able to control/guide the missile until it is close enough to the target to engage on it's own. If it is a SARH missile it will not be able to engage on its own and needs either an illuminator or a real good command guidance link. For Russia, this is not a great situation. This is not something the Russians really planned to do. That was going to be a PVO task. Well, the PVO (as such) is no longer available, so Russia is probably trying to figure out how to use SARH missiles (of which they have many) to do the job. It is probable they intended to use Mainstays in the control role, but now with the vulnerability of Mainstays and the lack of available platforms something else may be tried. The Russians are learning indeed. Ukraine and the west is not making them pay in blood for their newfound knowledge. That is how you lose winnable wars.

[Goose]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russias-adapt...52996.html

Interesting article. While I fully share the frustration with the fact the F-16s were not available in 2023 to support the Ukrainian offensives in the south that doesn't mean F-16s will be "useless" in 2024. As the article correctly points out, the Russians have been gifted with at least a year of warning. As stated, the Russians learn. The slowness of US/NATO initiatives has indeed allowed Russia to correct/mitigate deficiencies in their forces before the "new" Ukrainian capabilities can be decisive. The west can't move at "the speed of war", and that is in the process of defeating Ukraine.

The idea the Russians are firing "ranging" shots is undoubtedly incorrect. Russia knows full well how far their missiles go, both with and without warheads. IMO what the probably are doing is characterizing the range of their control of the missiles. This is necessary because Russia must finally come to grips with the fact the very long range of their SAMs is useless if the tracking radar can't see the targets or the missile can't "hear" the command guidance. If you are shooting at targets that operate at high altitudes and on reasonably predictable courses that isn't a big problem because the radar horizon and path loss are well known. However if you want to target a low-flying maneuvering target you have to be able to control/guide the missile until it is close enough to the target to engage on it's own. If it is a SARH missile it will not be able to engage on its own and needs either an illuminator or a real good command guidance link. For Russia, this is not a great situation. This is not something the Russians really planned to do. That was going to be a PVO task. Well, the PVO (as such) is no longer available, so Russia is probably trying to figure out how to use SARH missiles (of which they have many) to do the job. It is probable they intended to use Mainstays in the control role, but now with the vulnerability of Mainstays and the lack of available platforms something else may be tried. The Russians are learning indeed. Ukraine and the west is not making them pay in blood for their newfound knowledge. That is how you lose winnable wars.