[Goose]

My theory is that maybe VKS is much more active the past two months because Ukraine is almost out of AD missiles. Your hypothesis is after two years Russia, for some unknown reason yet to be elucidated, is suddenly much more active and successful.

I totally agree the fact Ukraine is almost out of AD missiles is a major factor in the success the VKS is having. However, I certainly don't understand your statement about "reasons yet to be elucidated". The included links elucidated the reasons quite well IMO. The two big game changers are that Russia has (finally) developed an equivalent of the US JDAM. They didn't have them previously because their belief was that the US and NATO would make their use impossible. The Russians developed that capability at scale. The second big changer is that the VKS recognized their pilots were inadequately trained. They didn't fly enough and didn't have the training (because they had no reason) to deliver precision guided weapons. Now the VKS does have the training and is "delivering the goods".  One hundred sorties a day is nothing to sneeze at even if Ukraine has adequate missile stocks for all its Patriot batteries.

The VKS undoubtedly still has training issues, but they are much better than they were. Russia has "learned". Even (or perhaps especially) the Ukrainians are saying it. FWIW, Russia's activity increase was incremental. Ukraine saw some of it when they attempted the summer/fall offensive in the south. You may remember that that was the point (August 2023) when Ukraine's request for F-16 hit a maximum and finally succeeded. Ukraine knows it is a different battle. They need an air force to win it. They said so, repeatedly and loudly. They experienced what the nascent VKS was doing and realized what it meant. What Ukraine (or some of their commanders anyway) have stated is that it is "too late" for the F-16s. This may be intentional disinformation. The idea presented was that the VKS had already prepared to deal with the F-16s. Certainly they were trying. The increased Mainstay activity had the hallmarks of learning to target low-flying aircraft with SAMs that can't actually "see" them. The Ukrainian destruction of the A-50s has, at least for now, stopped that. The Ukrainian success against an SU-34 strike, shooting down two, led the VKS to stand down for a week or so while they figured out what happened. They have responded by increasing drone activity to develop corridors where there are no SAMs. This also helps cruise missile targeting. Right now, we don't really know how well this is working, because Ukraine doesn't have the SAMs available to contest the airspace anyway. Hopefully that will soon change and the VKS will get to find out how good they are (or are not) at mission planning.

 AFAIK, the VKS has not yet demonstrated that it can deliver glide bomb attacks in the presence of active aerial opposition. It is wise to remember that since the start of the war neither Ukraine nor Russia could/did use their IFF. That has lead to considerable "red on red" by Russia. Now imagine mixing in a bunch of "yellow" bandits. If it reaches that point, it will be very "interesting". I think Russia could get a very bloody nose there. Their doctrine has always been to defend "bombers" with dedicated fighters. However, they really haven't had to do so and given their previous performances it is entirely possible the VKS can't deliver. However, the longer it takes the better the VKS "bomber" pilots will be. 

And because you just couldn't be happy watching a Russian assault golf cart get blown up by a short range FPV, here are some Russian assault vans getting blown up near Robotyne.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1778449016071622958

I am always happy to see orcs destroyed. I am not happy when totally unsupported conclusions are drawn from it happening. It makes us believe that Russia is "bleeding out" when that is not actually indicated by what we see. I don't see an "assault" being conducted in either of these movies. I see isolated vehicles moving across open ground where they probably thought the were relatively safe. All armies have such vehicles that get used every day. What IS different in this war is that Ukraine has drones that range far and wide, even in what would be called "rear" areas. They take out targets of opportunity. Thin skinned ones are "prime meat" because any hit probably kills the vehicle. Does that mean Russia is running out of armored vehicles? Not at all. It means Russia (just like all other armies) has  lots of thin-skinned vehicles that it regularly uses for supply and various "special" missions where armored vehicles are not appropriate.

Fortunately Germany is partially stepping in where the US is failing. They are going to provide another Patriot battery.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1779141789678440782

Good. Delivery will be "initiated immediately". When will an operational Patriot arrive in Ukraine along with at least 5 full ammunition loads? Germany's record on promising vs. delivery isn't very good. Right now, the US unfortunately is promising and delivering nothing, so we don't have anything to crow about. Lets hope the Germans actually move rapidly.

[Goose]

My theory is that maybe VKS is much more active the past two months because Ukraine is almost out of AD missiles. Your hypothesis is after two years Russia, for some unknown reason yet to be elucidated, is suddenly much more active and successful.

I totally agree the fact Ukraine is almost out of AD missiles is a major factor in the success the VKS is having. However, I certainly don't understand your statement about "reasons yet to be elucidated". The included links elucidated the reasons quite well IMO. The two big game changers are that Russia has (finally) developed an equivalent of the US JDAM. They didn't have them previously because their belief was that the US and NATO would make their use impossible. The Russians developed that capability at scale. The second big changer is that the VKS recognized their pilots were inadequately trained. They didn't fly enough and didn't have the training (because they had no reason) to deliver precision guided weapons. Now the VKS does have the training and is "delivering the goods".  One hundred sorties a day is nothing to sneeze at even if Ukraine has adequate missile stocks for all its Patriot batteries.

The VKS undoubtedly still has training issues, but they are much better than they were. Russia has "learned". Even (or perhaps especially) the Ukrainians are saying it. FWIW, Russia's activity increase was incremental. Ukraine saw some of it when they attempted the summer/fall offensive in the south. You may remember that that was the point (August 2023) when Ukraine's request for F-16 hit a maximum and finally succeeded. Ukraine knows it is a different battle. They need an air force to win it. They said so, repeatedly and loudly. They experienced what the nascent VKS was doing and realized what it meant. What Ukraine (or some of their commanders anyway) have stated is that it is "too late" for the F-16s. This may be intentional disinformation. The idea presented was that the VKS had already prepared to deal with the F-16s. Certainly they were trying. The increased Mainstay activity had the hallmarks of learning to target low-flying aircraft with SAMs that can't actually "see" them. The Ukrainian destruction of the A-50s has, at least for now, stopped that. The Ukrainian success against an SU-34 strike, shooting down two, led the VKS to stand down for a week or so while they figured out what happened. They have responded by increasing drone activity to develop corridors where there are no SAMs. This also helps cruise missile targeting. Right now, we don't really know how well this is working, because Ukraine doesn't have the SAMs available to contest the airspace anyway. Hopefully that will soon change and the VKS will get to find out how good they are (or are not) at mission planning.

 AFAIK, the VKS has not yet demonstrated that it can deliver glide bomb attacks in the presence of active aerial opposition. It is wise to remember that since the start of the war neither Ukraine nor Russia could/did use their IFF. That has lead to considerable "red on red" by Russia. Now imagine mixing in a bunch of "yellow" bandits. If it reaches that point, it will be very "interesting". I think Russia could get a very bloody nose there. Their doctrine has always been to defend "bombers" with dedicated fighters. However, they really haven't had to do so and given their previous performances it is entirely possible the VKS can't deliver. However, the longer it takes the better the VKS "bomber" pilots will be. 

And because you just couldn't be happy watching a Russian assault golf cart get blown up by a short range FPV, here are some Russian assault vans getting blown up near Robotyne.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1778449016071622958

I am always happy to see orcs destroyed. I am not happy when totally unsupported conclusions are drawn from it happening. It makes us believe that Russia is "bleeding out" when that is not actually indicated by what we see. I don't see an "assault" being conducted in either of these movies. I see isolated vehicles moving across open ground where they probably thought the were relatively safe. All armies have such vehicles that get used every day. What IS different in this war is that Ukraine has drones that range far and wide, even in what would be called "rear" areas. They take out targets of opportunity. Thin skinned ones are "prime meat" because any hit probably kills the vehicle. Does that mean Russia is running out of armored vehicles? Not at all. It means Russia (just like all other armies) has  lots of thin-skinned vehicles that it regularly uses for supply and various "special" missions where armored vehicles are not appropriate.

Fortunately Germany is partially stepping in where the US is failing. They are going to provide another Patriot battery.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1779141789678440782

Good. Delivery will be "initiated immediately". When will an operational Patriot arrive in Ukraine along with at least 5 full ammunition loads? Germany's record on promising vs. delivery isn't very good. Right now, the US unfortunately is promising and delivering nothing, so we don't have anything to crow about. Lets hope the Germans actually move rapidly.