[TrumpCard]

If Israel's next act is to again attack Iran itself, in whatever form, then things could get messy.  Strikes against Iranian client states might not cause a response.  

Just to be clear, Israel did not attack Iran itself.  Israel attacked a "consulate" building in Syria.

If they don't take over Gaza, they will still have to occupy it for a long while and there will be a cost to that in the long term.

What does this mean?  Israel can leave Gaza anytime it decides to do so.

There will be a certain political cost to those running Israel if these non state actors continue to launch drones and missles and force Israel to more or less stay on a war footing for a long time.   It is a tough game to play in and an even tougher game to get out of.

It's likely that those currently running Israel will be voted out in the 2026 election for a myriad of missteps, most importantly for allowing the attack from Gaza to happen in the first place.  To the extent you're arguing that the coalition will lose support as a result of responding too aggressively, I could not disagree more.  The Israeli public strongly favors an aggressive response to Hamas' unprovoked slaughter, rape, and abduction of thousands of civilians.  I understand there's a principled basis for Israel to temper its response, but the supposed political benefit of a tempered response is non-existent.

[TrumpCard]

If Israel's next act is to again attack Iran itself, in whatever form, then things could get messy.  Strikes against Iranian client states might not cause a response.  

Just to be clear, Israel did not attack Iran itself.  Israel attacked a "consulate" building in Syria.

If they don't take over Gaza, they will still have to occupy it for a long while and there will be a cost to that in the long term.

What does this mean?  Israel can leave Gaza anytime it decides to do so.

There will be a certain political cost to those running Israel if these non state actors continue to launch drones and missles and force Israel to more or less stay on a war footing for a long time.   It is a tough game to play in and an even tougher game to get out of.

It's likely that those currently running Israel will be voted out in the 2026 election for a myriad of missteps, most importantly for allowing the attack from Gaza to happen in the first place.  To the extent you're arguing that the coalition will lose support as a result of responding too aggressively, I could not disagree more.  The Israeli public strongly favors an aggressive response to Hamas' unprovoked slaughter, rape, and abduction of thousands of civilians.  I understand there's a principled basis for Israel to temper its response, but the supposed political benefit of a tempered response is non-existent.