[Goose]

Long range ATACMS are likely to be provided soon, in the pending aid package once the Ukraine aid bill passes.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/23/politics/...index.html
https://x.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1782835293218845116

That is good news indeed.  I do not think Ukraine has forever to force Russia to end the war.  If they can't force it, they will simply be bled to death as Putin will just keep sending cannon fodder until they win.  I also think that whatever they do will have to be fairly significant on the world stage. What is the best way to do that?  From my viewpoint the only logical target would be Crimea. Take out the Kerch Bridge, force them to try and resupply by barge/ship subject to Ukraines sea drones and the long range missles we will provide. But to have any chance they have to be able to establish at least some level of airsuperiority maybe along Southern Crimea.  This would also enable them to hit Russian trenches and installations along E105 running down from Mauripol to Crimea.  Drones, longer range missles and F16's with standoff weapons can make further supply of Crimea very difficult. It would also enable Ukraine to hit Russian trenches, bunkers and other fortifications with much bigger and better warheads than in the past, giving them some chance of breaking through if they can get enough stuff across the river.
Quite possibly wishful thinking on my part, but they don't need to keep doing the same old stuff they have been doing.  Whatever they do, it won't be easy.

Totally agree. The Mauripol route is the one Ukraine chose last summer. It has the added advantage that it directly cuts the the "land bridge" to Crimea supply along what is the shortest path. However, I think Ukraine has to consider taking what Russia gives them. The route from Kherson and/or Nova Kakhovka is longer, but from what we saw last year it is not as heavily fortified. There is just too much country for Russia to do there what they did in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. OTOH the open ground makes it impossible to hide anything there.

Ideally, Ukraine would put pressure on all 3 routes and reinforce success (OK, it is a Russian approach, but sometimes that is a good idea :-). I doubt Ukraine has the manpower to do that. Starting an offensive on one route and then shifting to another after Russia commits reserves is another approach. In any case, agree it won't be easy and lots of people will die. And for what? There is no "theory" of this war. It is just criminal stupidity (literally). Let's hope Ukraine prevails. It is possible.

[Goose]

Long range ATACMS are likely to be provided soon, in the pending aid package once the Ukraine aid bill passes.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/23/politics/...index.html
https://x.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1782835293218845116

That is good news indeed.  I do not think Ukraine has forever to force Russia to end the war.  If they can't force it, they will simply be bled to death as Putin will just keep sending cannon fodder until they win.  I also think that whatever they do will have to be fairly significant on the world stage. What is the best way to do that?  From my viewpoint the only logical target would be Crimea. Take out the Kerch Bridge, force them to try and resupply by barge/ship subject to Ukraines sea drones and the long range missles we will provide. But to have any chance they have to be able to establish at least some level of airsuperiority maybe along Southern Crimea.  This would also enable them to hit Russian trenches and installations along E105 running down from Mauripol to Crimea.  Drones, longer range missles and F16's with standoff weapons can make further supply of Crimea very difficult. It would also enable Ukraine to hit Russian trenches, bunkers and other fortifications with much bigger and better warheads than in the past, giving them some chance of breaking through if they can get enough stuff across the river.
Quite possibly wishful thinking on my part, but they don't need to keep doing the same old stuff they have been doing.  Whatever they do, it won't be easy.

Totally agree. The Mauripol route is the one Ukraine chose last summer. It has the added advantage that it directly cuts the the "land bridge" to Crimea supply along what is the shortest path. However, I think Ukraine has to consider taking what Russia gives them. The route from Kherson and/or Nova Kakhovka is longer, but from what we saw last year it is not as heavily fortified. There is just too much country for Russia to do there what they did in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. OTOH the open ground makes it impossible to hide anything there.

Ideally, Ukraine would put pressure on all 3 routes and reinforce success (OK, it is a Russian approach, but sometimes that is a good idea :-). I doubt Ukraine has the manpower to do that. Starting an offensive on one route and then shifting to another after Russia commits reserves is another approach. In any case, agree it won't be easy and lots of people will die. And for what? There is no "theory" of this war. It is just criminal stupidity (literally). Let's hope Ukraine prevails. It is possible.