[Mick]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-finall...01421.html

IMO this article is a pretty good summary of the "state of play". The "West" made a horrible mistake by allowing Russia to "hang around" for far too long. History shows that is always a mistake with them. They needed to get "blown out" early, and it didn't happen, using sports terminology. That said, they still have problems. Putin's leadership changes may or may not have permanent effects, and Russia going "all in" on a true war economy may be asking too much. Something may "break" in a way that causes political unrest that is hard to control. We don't have much insight into such things, so we can't count on it.

I suspect that losing the monumentally corrupt Sergei Shoigu will pay big dividends. He had the job for 12 years, and did the Russian military no favors. One of his deputies, Timur Ivanov, was recently arrested on corruption charges. Replacing Shoigu with the economist Andrei Belousov should, at a minimum, make the military efforts financially efficient and reduce the corruption inherent in the Russian system.

[Mick]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-finall...01421.html

IMO this article is a pretty good summary of the "state of play". The "West" made a horrible mistake by allowing Russia to "hang around" for far too long. History shows that is always a mistake with them. They needed to get "blown out" early, and it didn't happen, using sports terminology. That said, they still have problems. Putin's leadership changes may or may not have permanent effects, and Russia going "all in" on a true war economy may be asking too much. Something may "break" in a way that causes political unrest that is hard to control. We don't have much insight into such things, so we can't count on it.

I suspect that losing the monumentally corrupt Sergei Shoigu will pay big dividends. He had the job for 12 years, and did the Russian military no favors. One of his deputies, Timur Ivanov, was recently arrested on corruption charges. Replacing Shoigu with the economist Andrei Belousov should, at a minimum, make the military efforts financially efficient and reduce the corruption inherent in the Russian system.