05-23-2024, 08:34 PM
(05-23-2024, 05:30 PM)Goose Wrote:(05-23-2024, 04:25 PM)Mick Wrote:IMO similar, but not quite the same. Stalin had already proved he was certifiably nuts. He had purged the military of officers to prevent it from becoming a threat. At the beginning of the war that created a disaster. Stalin had Beria and the NKVD. The NKVD makes the current FSB look like choir boys. Beria was absolutely ruthless and absolutely loyal to Stalin. He was also very good at what he did. The public was terrified of the NKVD (for good reason). Putin has no Beria, and that is a big problem for him. He can't terrorize the public to nearly the same extent Stalin could. Stalin also had a public communist ideology to fall back on, cynical as it may have been. Stalin also had a legitimate existential threat to Russia about which there could be no doubt. The "Great Patriotic War" actually was that. Putin has neither.(05-23-2024, 09:29 AM)Goose Wrote: The problem with all this is that Putin still can't allow the concentration of too much power in the hands of a competent organization. If he does, that organization is by its very existence a threat to him. This ensures that Russia will always have an arguably corrupt and inefficient military. Putin has to execute a balancing act where it is inefficient enough and corrupt enough it won't create a threat to Putin but is at the same time competent enough to execute his will. This is a difficult task to pull off.
That's the old Stalin model. Works, so long as you don't run out of troops -- and NATO doesn't supply troops to Ukraine.
Most importantly, Stalin was fortunate enough to eventually locate two very competent military leaders that he could play off against each other, Zukhov and Konev. Neither party could move against Stalin (even if they wished to) because the other would oppose them militarily. Stalin also kept around at least three other generals that commanded "Fronts", any one of which was strong enough to fatally damage a coup while not strong enough to stage their own. This resulted in the Red Army not being as efficient as it would have been by following the "Unity of Command" principle, but it did help Stalin sleep at night. Right after the war ended, Zhukov was stripped of his power. Stalin didn't trust him and expected a coup.
Putin therefore has a greater challenge balancing the forces that may array against him. The main positive thing he has going for him (compared to Stalin) is that Russia itself isn't suffering nearly as it did in WWII. Putin is however a "one man band" without any strong allies. He also doesn't instill the deep fear in the general public that Stalin did.
Putin must be at least a little worried since he is replacing multiple senior officers. My question is how long can he make this system of staying in power work? He is definitely not Stalin and has to deal with a society that has had some exposure to "Western Capitalism", and others who have basically stolen billions from the Russian Federation. So how does he keep the quagmire underlying his regeime in place and himself in power?
If the "West" starts using frozen Russian Assets to provide support to Ukraine, what impact will that have on his power base?
Although Putin may currently be "winning", can he maintain enough support to continue to "win". His recent actions seem to indicate he is not confident he can continue to win with those who got him this far. I take the justifications for the replacement of a number of senior military officers to clear evidence that he feels he power base slipping away. Again, he is NOT Stalin.
